Jason’s multi-part prediction substantially came true.

1. Trump “demolishing” Biden in the June 27 debate
   A 538/Ipsos post‑debate poll found that about 60% of debate watchers said Trump performed best vs. 21% for Biden, and 73% rated Biden’s performance as poor or terrible, with only 8% calling it good or excellent. (ipsos.com) This matches the spirit of “demolish” and a clear Trump outperformance.

2. Biden’s support dropping to ~30%
   After the debate, Biden’s job approval and general standing slid into the low–mid 30s in major polls. Gallup recorded his all‑time low presidential approval at 36% in July 2024, in the days after the debate and just before his withdrawal. (news.gallup.com) Pew’s July 1–7, 2024 survey (covering the immediate aftermath) put his approval at 32%. (en.wikipedia.org) That’s “roughly 30%” by normal forecasting standards, even if not exactly 30 in the averages.

3. Democrats engineering a ‘graceful out’ and replacing Biden as nominee
   On July 21, 2024, Biden announced he would not accept the Democratic nomination and was ending his re‑election bid, explicitly framing it as being in the best interest of his party and the country. (time.com) In the same window he endorsed Kamala Harris to be the nominee, and Democratic leaders rapidly coalesced around her; reporting at the time tied his withdrawal directly to the “disastrous” June 27 debate and the subsequent party revolt. (latimes.com) Harris then became the Democratic presidential nominee at the August 2024 convention.

Putting it together: Trump clearly outperformed Biden in the June 27 debate; Biden’s national support (as measured by job approval) dropped into the low 30s; and Democratic leaders did in fact orchestrate a relatively face‑saving withdrawal and substitute a different nominee. Minor numerical imprecision aside, the core scenario Jason described played out closely enough that this forecast is best judged right.