Available polling of independents and undecided/swing voters after Trump’s May 30, 2024 New York conviction shows a net negative reaction, not a sympathy-driven boost.

Key evidence:

• A Reuters/Ipsos poll summarized by Forbes found that among independents, 25% said the conviction made them less likely to vote for Trump, vs only 18% who said more likely—a clear net negative effect. Over half of independents in the same coverage said he should drop out of the race. (forbes.com)
• A Politico/Ipsos poll reported that 32% of independents were less likely to support Trump after the verdict, while only 12% were more likely; 53% of independents said he was guilty. (benzinga.com) Another Politico/Ipsos reading found 21% of independents less likely vs 5% more likely—again a net negative. (onnradio.com)
• An AP‑NORC survey found overall views of Trump and Biden were essentially unchanged from before the verdict, with independents divided on Trump and no sign of a broad sympathy surge; about half of U.S. adults approved of the conviction. (ny1.com)
• Morning Consult’s post‑verdict polling showed a majority of independents (about 52%) approved of the conviction and a similar share believed Trump had committed crimes, even as many opposed imprisoning him—suggesting limited sympathy for Trump himself, rather than for harsh punishment. (pro.morningconsult.com)
• A separate summary of polling noted that 52% of independents thought Trump should end his 2024 campaign after the conviction, underscoring admonishment rather than increased sympathy. (gvwire.com)

On Election Day, Trump did perform better with independents than in 2020 (e.g., Pew finds independents including leaners split 48–48 between Trump and Harris in 2024, after favoring Biden by 9 points in 2020; Edison data shows self‑identified independents 49% Harris, 46% Trump). (pewresearch.org) Other analyses suggest his share of the independent vote rose several points and that independents were pivotal in swing states. (thefulcrum.us) But these longer‑run shifts are driven by many factors (economy, immigration, Harris replacing Biden, etc.), and the direct polling on the conviction itself shows it initially hurt him with independents rather than generating net sympathy.

Because multiple independent polls consistently show that, among independents and undecided/swing voters, more people moved away from Trump than toward him in response to the New York conviction—and many wanted him to drop out—the prediction that the conviction would create a net sympathy effect and thus improve his standing with that group going into 2024 is best classified as wrong.