Evidence since mid‑2024 shows the beginnings of exactly the trend Friedberg described, both on the demand side (health and chemical concerns about plastics in food) and the supply side (food‑related businesses rolling out low‑/no‑plastic and bioplastic options and marketing them as safer or premium).

1. Rising concern about plastic chemicals in food and explicit focus on phthalates
   Consumer Reports’ widely covered testing found phthalates and bisphenols in nearly all sampled U.S. supermarket foods and fast foods, often at high levels, and highlighted associated health risks, sparking substantial media coverage and consumer guidance on reducing exposure. (food-safety.com) In early 2025, Minnesota introduced bill SF 188 to require packaged‑food manufacturers to test for phthalates and report results, explicitly framing phthalates in food contact materials as a serious health issue. (foodandwine.com) Environmental and public‑health groups also sued the U.S. FDA in 2025 over its refusal to restrict phthalates in plastic food packaging, again centering the chemicals’ reproductive and developmental risks. (theguardian.com) Parallel articles and consultancy pieces describe phthalates in plastic packaging as a major public‑health risk, reinforcing both regulatory and consumer pressure. (condor-consultancy.com) Separately, industry analysis notes a strong shift toward plasticizer‑free and phthalate‑free food wraps, citing surveys where U.S. consumers explicitly seek “non‑toxic” and phthalate‑free food wrap and forecasts of double‑digit growth for plasticizer‑free films through 2025. (ecoartfullife.com) This is exactly the kind of rising attention to “low phthalate” food contact that Friedberg anticipated.

2. Food and packaging companies actively marketing “low/no plastic” and plastic‑free solutions as premium or value‑add
   Major retailers and brands have introduced packaging changes for food products that are explicitly marketed as plastic‑free or low‑plastic. Examples include: Aldi’s Everyday Essentials porridge oats in the UK, relaunched in 2024 with 100% paper, plastic‑free packaging and promoted as part of the chain’s move away from plastic; (trendhunter.com) Sainsbury’s shift to pulp‑paper trays for salmon and trout that cut plastic by ~70%, positioned as reducing reliance on plastic and improving recyclability; (cleanthesky.com) and Stora Enso’s Trayforma BarrPeel board for vacuum‑packed meats and cheese, specifically described as fresh‑food packaging with low plastic content (about 90% fiber) to reduce fossil‑based materials and meet consumer demand for sustainable options. (packaging-journal.de) Packaging suppliers now routinely promote “low‑plastic solutions” for food (e.g., Pyroll’s paper laminates marketed as natural, responsible, and explicitly labeled ‘low‑plastic solutions – smaller carbon footprint’). (pyroll.com) India‑based FMCG major ITC has adopted a three‑pillar “No plastic, Better Plastic, Less Plastic” framework and launched flour and biscuit packs with 100% paper outers and bio‑based coatings, emphasizing biodegradable, fiber‑based packaging for food as an eco‑friendly, premium alternative to conventional plastic laminates. (packagingsouthasia.com) These are concrete examples of food‑industry players “showing up with solutions” and using low‑/no‑plastic packaging as a selling point.

3. Bioplastic and alternative materials in food‑related applications are clearly in a commercial ‘wave’ phase
   Multiple independent market reports show that bioplastic and sustainable plastic packaging are now a fast‑growing, multi‑billion‑dollar segment, with food and beverages as the dominant end use. A global sustainable plastic packaging report values that market at roughly $86.6B in 2024, projecting $122.4B by 2029, explicitly noting widespread use of biodegradable materials like PLA in food containers and flexible packaging. (businesswire.com) Dedicated bioplastic‑packaging studies estimate 2024–2025 market sizes on the order of $10–20B with CAGRs in the mid‑teens to >20%, and consistently report that food and beverages are the leading or fastest‑growing application segment. (grandviewresearch.com) Packaging‑industry coverage notes that a large share of global bioplastics volume (around 40–45%) is used in packaging, much of it for food, as brands react to environmental and regulatory pressures. (knowledge-sourcing.com) On the product side, there are numerous concrete launches: biodegradable PHA‑ and wood‑fiber strawberry punnets intended to replace hundreds of millions of plastic clamshells; (theaustralian.com.au) Papacks’ fully fiber, plastic‑free bottles being commercialized for beverages in North America; (foodnavigator-usa.com) and extensive adoption of compostable cutlery and serviceware in quick‑service chains, with case studies showing large chains replacing plastic utensils with compostable alternatives and seeing higher customer satisfaction. (digitaljournal.com) An industry article on compostable cutlery cites a 2025 Technomic study finding that 81% of consumers are more likely to repurchase from brands using compostable packaging and 62% will pay a premium for visibly eco‑conscious options, confirming that these materials are being positioned as higher‑value, health‑ and environment‑conscious choices rather than commodity plastics. (digitaljournal.com)

4. Explicit marketing around health / “safer than traditional plastics”
   Some food‑related packaging offerings now explicitly emphasize the absence of problematic chemicals as a differentiator, not just environmental benefits. Asia Pulp & Paper’s Foopak Bio Natura food‑service line is marketed in the U.S. as plastic‑free, compostable and recyclable and “free from harmful chemicals found in traditional plastic packaging,” in response to survey data showing 83% of Americans increasingly worried about single‑use plastics’ harms to ecosystems and human health, with 68% willing to pay more for sustainable products. (packworld.com) Consumer‑facing guidance and product round‑ups increasingly highlight plastic‑free, BPA‑free and phthalate‑free food storage and lunch containers as “non‑toxic” or “healthier” options, reflecting and reinforcing the health framing Friedberg anticipated, even if much of this is in food‑adjacent products (wraps, containers, lunch boxes) rather than the food itself. (nakedpantry.co)

5. Magnitude and caveats
   It is still true that bioplastics remain a small fraction of overall plastic volume (on the order of a few million tonnes vs. hundreds of millions of tonnes of fossil‑based plastics worldwide), and most mainstream packaged foods do not yet carry explicit front‑of‑pack labels such as “low phthalate” in the way that “organic” or “non‑GMO” labels exist. (ft.com) But Friedberg’s prediction was about the start of a wave in the mid‑2020s: food companies paying attention to plastic/chemical concerns, positioning low‑/no‑plastic or bioplastic options as premium responses, and a broader commercial push of bioplastic alternatives in food‑related applications. On those terms, the evidence by late 2025—regulatory and media focus on phthalates, measurable consumer willingness to pay more for safer/sustainable packaging, rapidly growing bioplastic packaging markets led by food and beverage, and many concrete low‑/no‑plastic and bioplastic packaging launches framed as healthier or more responsible—supports that this wave has indeed begun.

Given that the timeframe he mentioned (“starting in the mid‑2020s”) is exactly where we are, and the observable industry and market trends match his described pattern, the prediction is best classified as right, acknowledging that the shift is underway rather than complete.