It’s too early to decisively judge this prediction, because Chamath’s wording clearly refers to a multi‑year dynamic ("at some point…Nvidia loses share even though revenues keep compounding") and only about 1.5 years have elapsed since the May 24, 2024 episode.

As of late 2025 evidence shows:

• Nvidia still dominates AI compute: Most industry estimates put Nvidia’s share of the data‑center AI accelerator market well above 70%–80%, especially for training large models, with H100/B100 class GPUs remaining the standard in major hyperscalers and AI labs. Competing accelerators (AMD Instinct MI300 series, Google TPUs, AWS Trainium/Inferentia, custom ASICs from startups) are growing, but from a much smaller base, and no clear, sustained loss of overall share by Nvidia is yet established.
• Nvidia’s AI revenue continues to grow sharply: Nvidia’s data‑center segment (dominated by AI GPUs) has reported very large year‑over‑year revenue increases in 2024 and 2025, and the company continues to guide for strong AI‑driven growth going forward.

Because:

1. The prediction’s horizon is “within the next several years,” which has not yet expired.
2. The condition that would falsify it (Nvidia never losing share while revenues compound) cannot yet be checked.
3. Current data does not show a clear, sustained share decline, but it also doesn’t rule out such a decline emerging over the remaining years of the forecast window.

…the correct classification as of November 30, 2025 is “inconclusive (too early)”, not “right” or “wrong.”