As of November 30, 2025, OpenAI clearly is one of the leading AI companies in the world by most conventional metrics (valuation, revenue, user base, and ecosystem impact). Estimates put OpenAI’s annualized revenue around $10B by early 2025, outpacing other model vendors, and analyses of the “largest AI companies in 2025” describe OpenAI as a central, market‑defining player used by billions of users and deeply embedded in enterprise and developer workflows. (epoch.ai)

However, Chamath’s prediction had two parts: (1) that OpenAI would be one of the dominant companies, and (2) that there would be roughly four such major companies that “matter in this whole space” over the coming years. While (1) is broadly consistent with today’s landscape—OpenAI is typically grouped with Alphabet/Google (Gemini/DeepMind), Microsoft (Copilot/Azure AI), Nvidia (AI chips/platforms), Anthropic (Claude), Meta (Llama), Apple, and sometimes Amazon as top‑tier AI players—the market clearly involves more than four major actors today, and competitive dynamics are still rapidly evolving. (linkedin.com)

New, heavily funded entrants (e.g., Jeff Bezos’s Project Prometheus and Mira Murati’s Thinking Machines Lab) are also still emerging and hiring from OpenAI and other leaders, underscoring that the eventual long‑term concentration of power is not yet settled. (en.wikipedia.org) Given that only about 1.5 years have passed since the May 2024 podcast and Chamath’s phrase “over the coming years” implies a multi‑year horizon, it is too early to determine whether OpenAI will remain one of roughly four dominant companies or whether the field will consolidate differently.

So while current evidence is directionally favorable to OpenAI being a top‑tier AI company, the specific prediction about being one of “four major companies that matter” over the coming years cannot yet be definitively judged, hence the result is inconclusive.