As of late November 2025, more than a year and a half after the October 2023 Hamas attack and over 18 months after the May 2024 podcast, core factual questions about the Gaza war remain highly contested, supporting Jason’s prediction that the “fog of war” would persist.

1. Casualty numbers remain disputed and only partially verifiable. Gaza’s Health Ministry now reports over 70,000 Palestinians killed, figures the UN continues to treat as broadly credible, yet Israel publicly questions their accuracy and still does not provide its own comprehensive alternative count. (reuters.com) Peer‑reviewed analyses in The Lancet and related work suggest the ministry’s tallies may significantly undercount deaths, producing higher statistical estimates and thereby introducing another set of divergent figures. (theguardian.com) An Associated Press analysis of Health Ministry data highlighted shifting reported proportions of women and children among the dead and raised questions about data reliability under conditions of system collapse. (apnews.com)

2. International bodies and states openly contest interpretations of the same data. A May 2024 controversy over a UN/OCHA table of identified victims was seized on by pro‑Israel commentators as proof earlier UN‑cited totals were exaggerated, forcing the UN and WHO to clarify that overall death estimates had not been revised down and that they still could not independently verify the full toll because of access and capacity limits. (theguardian.com) This illustrates that, even well into 2024 and beyond, basic casualty breakdowns and their meaning remain politically and factually disputed rather than “settled.”

3. Authenticity of videos and on‑the‑ground facts are still heavily contested. Media‑forensics work and monitoring groups document hundreds of recurring myths, doctored or AI‑generated visuals, and miscaptioned war footage spreading on major platforms on both sides of the conflict into 2025, underscoring a long‑running information war with no clear resolution. (newsguardtech.com) Key incidents—such as responsibility for the Al‑Ahli hospital blast—have remained subjects of competing narratives and enduring uncertainty in formal media reviews long after the events themselves. (abc.net.au)

Because nearly all the domains Jason mentioned—casualty counts, civilian/combatant ratios, responsibility for specific attacks, and authenticity of visual evidence—remain murky, disputed, or only partially reconstructable well over a year after his May 2024 comment, the prediction that “the fog of war is going to be thick for a while” has clearly borne out.