Evidence from 2024–2025 is consistent with Jason’s qualitative view that robotaxis are not causing a sudden, mass displacement of human ride‑hailing, but it is too early to say whether his more specific claim of only ~1–2 percentage‑point market‑share gains per year will hold over the longer run.

What we see so far (2024–2025):

• Waymo reports more than 250,000 paid robotaxi rides per week in the U.S. and served about 4 million autonomous rides in 2024, scaling to hundreds of thousands of weekly trips across a handful of U.S. cities. (cnbc.com)
• Baidu’s Apollo Go has also reached roughly 250,000 fully driverless weekly rides and over 17 million total rides, but Baidu’s CEO has emphasized that even in a leading city like Wuhan its share of ride‑hailing is only around 1% and that reaching “meaningful” market share will take many years. (cnbc.com)
• Meanwhile, human‑driver platforms are still enormous. Uber alone handled over 11 billion trips in 2024 and more than 3.2 billion trips in Q2 2025, while Didi in China reports roughly 33 million daily transactions (≈12 billion trips per year). (investor.uber.com) Against tens of billions of human‑driver trips annually, all robotaxi services combined still account for well under 1% of global ride‑hailing volume, implying that their global market share is rising by well under a percentage point per year.

Local exceptions and why they don’t settle the prediction:

• In some constrained geofenced areas, especially San Francisco, robotaxis are making deeper inroads. Yipit data (summarized by The Driverless Digest) suggests that within Waymo’s SF operating zone, its share of ride‑hailing trips grew to roughly 22% by late 2024, comparable to Lyft in that subset of trips—faster than Jason’s “1–2 percentage points per year” heuristic. But this excludes airport and freeway trips and applies only to a limited service area and a short 15‑month window, not to an entire metro market or to the overall industry. (thedriverlessdigest.com)

Why the call is inconclusive rather than right or wrong:

• Jason’s core thesis—no abrupt, global wipe‑out of human ride‑hailing by robotaxis—matches current reality. Market leaders like Waymo and Apollo Go are scaling quickly in absolute numbers but still constitute a tiny fraction of total ride‑hailing worldwide, and even their own executives describe market‑share gains as gradual. (cnbc.com)
• However, his numerical estimate (only ~1–2 percentage‑point share gains per year once deployment begins) is a long‑run structural claim about how adoption will proceed over many years. With commercial robotaxi services only just beginning broader rollout in 2024–2025 and global market share still well below 1%, there is not yet enough multi‑year data to confirm or falsify that specific diffusion rate.

Because the pattern so far aligns with a slow, non‑abrupt transition but the multi‑year percentage‑point trajectory he described cannot yet be robustly measured, the fairest assessment as of November 30, 2025 is “inconclusive (too early)” rather than definitively right or wrong.