just like Apple and Firefox were able to intercept search traffic, I think. And let's make a prediction here that meta is going to get ten points of the search market.View on YouTube
The prediction is framed as happening “within the next several years,” so the time window clearly extends beyond November 2025. Only about 1.5 years have elapsed since the April 26, 2024 podcast, so the stated horizon has not yet expired.
What we can check today:
- Global web search remains overwhelmingly dominated by Google. Statcounter data for October 2025 shows ~90% global market share for Google, with Bing around 4% and the rest split among Yandex, Yahoo, DuckDuckGo, Baidu, etc.; Meta does not appear as a distinct search engine host or engine in these breakdowns. (gs.statcounter.com) This strongly suggests Meta’s traditional web search share is still negligible as of late 2025 and certainly nowhere near “roughly 10 percentage points.”
- Meta has in fact done what the prediction assumed: it integrated its Meta AI assistant directly into the search bars of WhatsApp, Instagram, Facebook, and Messenger starting in early–mid 2024, and has continued rolling it out globally. (androidpolice.com) Meta reports hundreds of millions of monthly users for Meta AI, and it’s now present across many countries and languages inside those apps. (about.fb.com)
However, major measurement services for "global web search market share" still track classic search engines (google.com, bing.com, etc.), not in‑app AI assistant queries inside social apps, and they do not publish a distinct share for Meta AI/Meta-hosted search. (gs.statcounter.com) So we know Meta has not yet achieved a visible ~10‑point share of conventional web search, but we also know the prediction allowed for multiple future years, and there’s no hard, widely accepted metric yet that aggregates all AI-style queries inside Meta’s apps into a single comparable “search market share” number.
Because (1) the stated time horizon (“several years”) has not run out, and (2) the industry does not yet provide a clear, standardized statistic that would let us definitively say Meta will not reach ~10 percentage points in that time window, the fairest assessment is that the prediction is too early to call rather than clearly right or wrong.