The one defense investment I've made is actually in this idea of how do you defend against drones?...imagine in the future that we have these autonomous drones everywhere that are basically assassination drones. How are you going to stop them?...it's maybe not the only way of doing it, but it's a really good way of doing it because you can mount these things to a vehicle.View on YouTube
The prediction’s timeframe is “over the next decade” from the podcast date (April 12, 2024), i.e., roughly through 2034. As of now (December 1, 2025), only about 1.5 years have elapsed.
There is evidence that:
- Small attack and reconnaissance drones are proliferating and being used extensively in conflicts like Ukraine–Russia and in the Middle East, including loitering munitions and FPV drones.
- A variety of automated and semi‑automated counter‑UAS systems using sensors and computer vision exist, including gun‑based and turret‑like solutions (e.g., C-UAS remote weapon stations, vehicle‑mounted systems, and fixed-site defenses), and some are being trialed or fielded at bases and on vehicles.
However, the specific claim is that automated gun‑turret systems using computer vision to detect and shoot down drones—like the Bullfrog concept—will become a common and practical method deployed on vehicles and around installations. Whether such systems become widely common and standardized across militaries, critical infrastructure, and VIP protection by 2034 cannot yet be assessed in 2025.
Because:
- The end of the stated time horizon (2034) has not been reached.
- Current adoption levels and doctrine are still evolving rapidly, and it is too early to say whether these systems will end up as a niche, transitional, or truly ubiquitous solution.
the correct assessment at this time is that the prediction’s truth value is too early to call, hence inconclusive rather than right or wrong.