Evidence from Federal Reserve meeting records shows that the federal funds target range stayed at 5.25%–5.50% at every FOMC meeting from January through June 2024, with no interest rate cuts implemented before July 2024. The January 31 and March 20, 2024 meetings both left the benchmark rate unchanged at 5.25%–5.50%. (pcbb.com)

The April/May 1, 2024 and June 12, 2024 FOMC meetings likewise held the rate steady at 5.25%–5.50%, explicitly choosing not to cut despite earlier market expectations for reductions. (federalreserve.gov) A consolidated calendar of FOMC decisions confirms that from January 31 through June 12, 2024, every meeting result was “Held Steady” at 5.25%–5.50%. (proinvestnews.com)

At the July 31, 2024 meeting, the Fed again maintained the federal funds rate in the same 5.25%–5.50% range, meaning there was still no cut as of that date. (federalreserve.gov) Subsequent commentary around the June decision noted that most forecasters were ruling out a July cut and looking instead to later in 2024, which is consistent with the idea that any eventual cut would come in July or later, not earlier in the year. (cbsnews.com)

Since (1) there were no interest rate cuts before July 2024, and (2) when cuts were discussed, they were framed as happening in July or later rather than earlier in 2024, Sacks’s prediction that the Fed would not implement cuts before July and would delay them until July 2024 or later is borne out by the actual policy path.