Evidence on realized inflation matches the normalized prediction.

• The Fed’s 2% target is defined in terms of the PCE price index. Estimates from the St. Louis Fed and other analyses show that headline PCE inflation for calendar year 2024 was about 2.6%, i.e., clearly above 2%.
• Monthly data from BEA releases and compiled series indicate that the 12‑month change in headline PCE stayed above 2% in every month of 2024 (roughly 2.6% in January, drifting down to about 2.1–2.4% by the fall, and back up to ~2.6% in December). It never touched or went below 2%.
• CPI inflation, while not the Fed’s target, also reinforces the idea of “persistent” inflation: headline CPI ran between about 2.4% and 3.5% year‑over‑year throughout 2024, never falling to 2.0%.
• Into early 2025, headline PCE remained around 2.5–2.7% year‑over‑year, still above target, confirming that disinflation back to 2% did not materialize in the near term after his April 2024 comment.

Given that inflation (on the Fed’s preferred PCE measure) stayed persistently above 2% through the end of 2024 and beyond, the normalized prediction that a quick return to 2% was unlikely is borne out by the data.