By November 2024, the conditions and results of the presidential race ended up far from what Jason described:

1. Biden was not the Democratic nominee in the 2024 general election. He withdrew on July 21, 2024 and Vice President Kamala Harris became the Democratic nominee against Donald Trump. (en.wikipedia.org) The prediction framed the effect specifically as RFK Jr. “peeling off” votes from Biden in the 2024 election.

2. RFK Jr. suspended his independent campaign and endorsed Trump before the election, then tried to get off the ballot. Reporting shows he ended his campaign, backed Trump, and successfully withdrew from the ballot in several key battlegrounds, including Pennsylvania, Georgia, and Arizona. He remained on the ballot in Wisconsin and Michigan only because state law made withdrawal difficult. (apnews.com) That is the opposite of an ongoing, strong third‑party run siphoning votes from the Democratic ticket in those states.

3. Actual vote share: Kennedy never reached “a couple of percentage points” in key swing states where he remained on the ballot. Nationwide, third‑party and independent candidates combined for about 2.13% of the vote; RFK Jr., as a withdrawn independent, received only about 0.49% nationally. (en.wikipedia.org) In Wisconsin and Michigan—two core swing states where he could not be removed—AP reporting puts his support at roughly 0.5% in each, well under the 2–3 percentage‑point range implied by “a couple of percentage points.” (apnews.com)

4. Available polling and post‑Biden‑withdrawal analyses indicate Kennedy hurt Trump at least as much as, and often more than, the Democrat, rather than uniquely hurting Biden/Harris. For example, a Marquette Law School poll in Wisconsin (conducted after Harris became the nominee) found that in a multi‑candidate matchup, Kennedy drew 6% overall and took slightly more from Republicans than Democrats, with particularly strong appeal to independents. (marquette.edu) A Washington Post analysis similarly concluded that, once Harris was the nominee, Kennedy and other third‑party candidates tended to erode Trump’s position more than Harris’s, with Harris generally doing better in polls when third‑party candidates were included. (washingtonpost.com)

Putting this together:

• Kennedy’s final ballot presence in core battlegrounds was limited.
• Where he did remain (e.g., WI and MI), his actual vote share was about half a percentage point, not “a couple of percentage points.”
• The best available evidence suggests his late‑stage support did not primarily come out of Biden/Harris’s hide in key swing states.

Given these facts, the specific prediction that the RFK Jr.–Nicole Shanahan independent ticket would peel off roughly a couple of percentage points from Biden in key swing states did not come true.