ALL INPredictions
Last updated Nov 29, 2025
Episodes / E171: DOJ sues Apple, AI arms race, Reddit IPO, Realtor settlement & more
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Jason @ 00:11:03Inconclusive
techgovernment
The DOJ’s 2024 antitrust case against Apple will be resolved via a settlement (not full trial judgment), and as part of or as a consequence of that resolution: (1) Apple will release an official iMessage client for Android; and (2) Apple Watch will gain compatibility with non‑Apple phones (e.g., Android), in a way that ultimately benefits Apple commercially, making the overall outcome a net positive for Apple.
I think this will be settled. And if you look at the different issues here, I think this is going to be actually a huge win for Apple, because if iMessage were to exist on Android, they would get all of those users to download iMessage, and they would have all those users. If they made the watch compatible, they would open up many more people to buy the watch and you would get more watches.View on YouTube
Explanation

As of 30 November 2025, the DOJ’s 2024 antitrust case against Apple (United States et al. v. Apple Inc.) is still ongoing with no settlement or final judgment yet:

  • In June 2025, Judge Julien Neals denied Apple’s motion to dismiss, and reporting notes that the case is moving into discovery and is expected to take years, with trial timing projected around 2027–2028.(macrumors.com)
  • Public records and coverage describe the case status as continuing litigation; there is no indication that it has been resolved or settled as of late 2025.(en.wikipedia.org)

Regarding the specific product outcomes Jason tied to that resolution:

  1. Official iMessage client for Android

    • iMessage remains officially available only on Apple platforms (iOS, iPadOS, macOS, watchOS, visionOS).(en.wikipedia.org)
    • A 2025 overview of iMessage-on-Android workarounds explicitly notes that Apple has never released iMessage for Android and continues to keep it as an ecosystem lock‑in, with only unofficial hacks providing limited access.(ofzenandcomputing.com)
    • Apple has added RCS support to the Messages app on iPhone to improve texting with Android users, but that is not an Android iMessage client; it’s standards‑based RCS handled on the Apple side.(en.wikipedia.org)

  2. Apple Watch compatibility with non‑Apple phones (e.g., Android)

    • Current guides (2025) still state there is no way to directly pair or fully use an Apple Watch with an Android phone; the watch requires an iPhone and Apple’s Watch app for setup and normal operation, and any Android "workarounds" are limited and unofficial.(androidauthority.com)

Because:

  • The core event of the prediction — the DOJ case being resolved via settlement rather than judgment — has not happened yet; the case is actively proceeding and likely years from trial.(macrumors.com)
  • The supposed downstream changes (official iMessage for Android and official Apple Watch–Android support) also have not occurred as of late 2025.

…it is too early to say definitively whether Jason’s prediction will ultimately prove right or wrong. As of now, none of the predicted outcomes have materialized, but since the underlying case has not yet been resolved, the fairest verdict is inconclusive (too early) rather than fully "right" or definitively "wrong."