Available analytics show that the All-In Podcast YouTube channel did not reach 1 million subscribers by December 31, 2024, and in fact is still below that milestone in late 2025 (mid– to high-900k range according to Social Blade, SPEAKRJ, and other trackers).(socialblade.com) Since the antecedent of Jason’s conditional (“if we hit 1 million subscribers by the end of the year”) never occurred, we have no way to observe whether they would actually have organized the promised public party in that scenario.

There was a large public event — the All-In Holiday Spectacular at San Francisco’s Palace of Fine Arts on December 7, 2024 — with open bar, food trucks, DJ sets and a big live show, which fans could attend by buying tickets.(garysguide.com) However, this event was promoted and covered as a general year-end/“blockbuster year” celebration, not as a "1 million subscribers" party, and it took place when the channel was only around the 500k–700k subscriber range (they had a 500K Subscriber Livestream on June 28, 2024 and were targeting 750k next).(getrecall.ai)

So:

• The condition in the prediction (1M subs by 12/31/2024) did not come true.
• The consequence (a public listener party tied to that 1M milestone) therefore never had a chance to be tested.

Because we cannot say whether they would have kept or broken the promise in the world where the condition did occur, the status of this conditional prediction is best scored as ambiguous rather than right or wrong.