As of November 30, 2025, there isn’t enough evidence yet to clearly say whether this AI‑driven robotics wave has definitively become the first sustained, broadly successful "general‑purpose" robotics cycle, versus another boom that could still stall.

Key points:

• Industrial and logistics robotics are clearly booming, but that trend predates 2024. The International Federation of Robotics reports that 542,000 industrial robots were installed in 2024, more than double the number a decade earlier, with over 4.6 million robots operating in factories worldwide. This reflects a long‑running automation curve, not uniquely the 2024 AI wave. ​(therobotreport.com)
• Service and warehouse robots are growing fast and seeing real commercial use. IFR’s 2025 Service Robots report shows almost 200,000 professional service robots sold in 2024 (up 9%), with more than half used for transportation and logistics, and a rapidly expanding robot‑as‑a‑service model. ​(ifr.org) Amazon alone operates over 750,000 robots in its fulfillment centers, using AI‑equipped mobile platforms and robotic arms for transport, sorting, and packaging at large scale. ​(businessinsider.com) These are substantial commercial successes, but they are largely task‑specific systems, not general‑purpose robots.
• Early AI‑enhanced general‑purpose / humanoid robots are only in pilot stages. 2025 coverage describes 2025 as a turning point where humanoid robots like Boston Dynamics’ new Atlas and systems from Agility and Figure begin entering factory and warehouse trials, but with lingering questions about reliability, safety, and economics. ​(wired.com) That is progress, but still far from “widespread practical deployment.”
• Some applications show promising but still narrow success. For example, Diligent Robotics’ Moxi has completed over 1.25 million deliveries across more than 25 U.S. hospitals and is now expanding pilots into senior living facilities. ​(reuters.com) This is real, scaled use, yet still focused on specific workflows rather than broad, general‑purpose capability.
• Regulators and analysts are already warning about a potential humanoid-robotics bubble. China’s National Development and Reform Commission has explicitly cautioned that the country’s rapidly expanding humanoid robotics sector may be experiencing a bubble, noting many entrants and limited mature use cases. ​(theverge.com) This underscores that it’s not yet clear whether the current excitement will translate into sustained, broad commercial deployment.

Taken together, the data show strong and accelerating adoption of AI‑enabled robots in specific domains (factories, warehouses, hospitals) and a surge of investment and pilots in more general‑purpose/humanoid systems. However, fewer than two years have passed since the March 2024 prediction, and the hallmark outcomes it implies—widespread, general‑purpose deployment and clearly proven long‑term commercial success of this new generation—have not yet fully materialized or definitively failed. The trajectory looks promising but remains unresolved, so the fairest assessment for now is "inconclusive (too early)".