As of late 2025, percentage-of-sale-price commissions remain the dominant way U.S. residential real estate agents are paid. Post–NAR settlement coverage shows that average total commissions are still around 5–6% of the sale price, with only modest declines in some data (e.g., from about 5.64% to 4.96% in one survey), and in some cases average percentage commissions have even ticked up slightly rather than down. (kiplinger.com) Buyer–agent agreements introduced after the 2024 settlement typically still specify compensation as a percentage of the purchase price rather than as flat fees. (washingtonpost.com)

Flat-fee and fixed-fee brokerages do appear to be growing and are frequently discussed as alternatives that can save consumers money, but coverage consistently presents them as niche or emerging options rather than the prevailing model. Articles from Bankrate, NPR, and others describe flat-fee brokers as new opportunities created by rule changes, contrasted against the longstanding norm of 5–6% percentage-based commissions; data and reporting do not show flat-fee models as a majority of transactions or the primary compensation structure. (bankrate.com)

Because Friedberg’s prediction was explicitly framed as a gradual structural shift occurring “over time” without a clear deadline, and such an industry-wide change would reasonably be expected (if it happens at all) over many years rather than within roughly 18–20 months, it is too early to say definitively that the prediction is right or wrong. What we can say is that the predicted shift has not yet occurred by 2025 (percentage-based commissions are still dominant), but the open-ended time horizon means the ultimate outcome remains unresolved. Therefore, the appropriate status is inconclusive (too early) rather than definitively right or wrong.