Chamath’s claim was that, as of March 22, 2024, we were at “the beginning of the beginning” of a new speculative phase (meme coins, high‑risk assets, IPOs), and that speculation would build from there rather than already being near its peak.

Evidence since then largely supports this:

1. Memecoin and crypto speculation sharply accelerated after April 2024.
   • From April 1, 2024 onward, more than one million new crypto tokens were launched in a matter of weeks, with over 370,000 on Ethereum (88% on Coinbase’s Base L2) and over 640,000 on Solana, the majority identified as memecoins. This was roughly double the number of tokens created on Ethereum from 2015–2023, and Base’s TVL rose ~630% from the start of 2024, explicitly attributed to a memecoin frenzy. (cointelegraph.com)
   • A March 18, 2024 report already described “memecoin mania” on Solana pushing trading volumes to their highest level in more than two years, but the truly massive token‑launch wave only arrived after April 1, 2024, showing that the speculative phase was still ramping up from Chamath’s timestamp. (bloomberg.com)
   • By early 2025, platforms like Pump.fun had minted about 5.5 million tokens on Solana in 2024 and were still launching tens of thousands of tokens in a single day and generating tens of millions of dollars in monthly fees, indicating that the memecoin hype persisted well beyond mid‑2024. (medium.com)

2. Broader crypto prices and “risk‑on” behavior continued higher after March 2024.
   • Bitcoin set a new all‑time high above $69,000 on March 5, 2024, just before the podcast. (theguardian.com)
   • As of late 2025, BTC trades around $90,000, materially above its March 2024 peak, showing that the broader crypto cycle and associated speculative appetite continued to expand rather than topping out around the time of Chamath’s comment.

3. IPO and equity speculation did pick up from 2023 levels.
   • In 2024, U.S. IPOs increased to 146 deals raising about $29.6 billion, more than 50% higher in proceeds than 2023, with a notable skew toward larger, more speculative offerings and a sizeable pipeline of additional listings queued for 2025. (fnlondon.com)
   • In 2025, Hong Kong’s IPO market saw a strong rebound, raising about $13.7 billion from 41 deals in just the first half of the year—already beating its full‑year 2024 total—driven by improved sentiment and a rush of Chinese listings. (wsj.com)
   While global IPO volumes later softened amid tariffs and volatility, the post‑2023 direction was clearly from depressed toward more speculative conditions rather than the other way around. (reuters.com)

4. Meme‑stock and high‑risk equity speculation resurged in 2024–2025.
   • 2025 saw renewed meme‑stock style episodes: names like Krispy Kreme, GoPro, and Beyond Meat posted large, social‑media‑driven rallies (e.g., Beyond Meat up over 1,300% in four days), explicitly compared in financial press to the original GameStop mania. (nypost.com)
   These point to retail speculative behavior continuing and periodically spiking well after March 2024.

Collectively, these data show that speculative activity in meme coins, high‑risk assets, and IPOs grew meaningfully after March 2024 and remained elevated into 2025, rather than March 2024 representing the top of the cycle. That aligns with Chamath’s characterization that this period was “the beginning of the beginning” of a new speculative phase.

Given the direction and timing of these trends, the prediction is best scored as right (directionally correct and supported by subsequent developments).