ALL INPredictions
Last updated Nov 29, 2025
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Chamath @ 01:03:02Inconclusive
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The Federal Reserve will implement three interest rate cuts in 2024, bringing the federal funds rate down to approximately 4.5–4.75% by the end of 2024, and will then cut an additional 50–75 basis points during 2025, resulting in a federal funds rate around 3.75–4.0% by the end of 2025.
Powell did say finally, it looks pretty likely we're going to get these three cuts. So we're going to be down to four and a half to 4.75 on fed funds by the end of the year. It probably means that we'll get another 50 to 75 basis points through 2025. So people will look out to the end of 2025 and look at a fed funds rate that's sort of like 3.75 to 4%.View on YouTube
Explanation

Chamath’s prediction has two time components (end‑2024 and end‑2025), and only the first is fully observable as of 30 November 2025.

What he predicted

  • 2024: Three rate cuts in 2024, taking the federal funds target range to 4.50–4.75% by year‑end.
  • 2025: An additional 50–75 bps of cuts in 2025, leaving the range around 3.75–4.00% by end‑2025.

What actually happened in 2024

  • The Fed kept the target range at 5.25–5.50% from late July 2023 until mid‑September 2024. (federalreserve.gov)
  • It then cut rates at three consecutive meetings in September, November, and December 2024, for a total of 100 bps of easing:
    • September 2024: 50 bps cut to 4.75–5.00%. (cnbc.com)
    • November 2024: 25 bps cut to 4.50–4.75%. (federalreserve.gov)
    • December 2024: 25 bps cut to 4.25–4.50%, the third consecutive cut. (jpmorgan.com)
  • So he was right about the number of cuts (three in 2024), but the year‑end level was lower than he forecast: 4.25–4.50% vs his 4.50–4.75%.

What has happened so far in 2025

  • The Fed held the target range at 4.25–4.50% from the start of 2025 through at least mid‑June 2025. (federalreserve.gov)
  • It then began cutting again:
  • As of mid‑November 2025, commentary notes the target range is still 3.75–4.00%, unchanged since the October cut. (medium.com)
  • This means that by late November 2025 the Fed has delivered 50 bps of cuts in 2025, and the target range is exactly 3.75–4.00%, matching Chamath’s numerical end‑2025 level so far.
  • However, forward‑looking reports indicate a possible additional cut in December 2025, which would push the range below 3.75–4.00% if it occurs, but that meeting has not yet happened as of 30 November 2025. (barrons.com)

Why the overall verdict is inconclusive

  • The 2024 portion can be judged: partly correct (three cuts) but off on the final level (Fed went further than he expected).
  • The 2025 portion explicitly concerns the rate “by the end of 2025.” As of 30 November 2025, the range is 3.75–4.00% and total 2025 cuts are 50 bps, which aligns with his forecast so far, but there is still one FOMC meeting left in December 2025. A further move could render his end‑2025 level inaccurate.

Because the key horizon of the prediction (“by the end of 2025”) has not fully elapsed yet, we cannot definitively say whether the full prediction came true. Hence the result is classified as inconclusive (too early to tell).