What will likely end up happening here is this will find its path to federal preemption. Historically, when we've seen states try to impose these sorts of bans, the companies that are ultimately affected, the innovators that are affected go to the federal government, and they try and legislate for a bill that says this stuff is legal and should be broadly available, that federal preemption then stops states rights on having a ban in place. And so it's very likely that we'll end up seeing some legislation here over the next couple of years if this technology is ultimately beneficial.View on YouTube
As of November 30, 2025, the U.S. Congress has not passed any federal law that (a) explicitly legalizes and broadly permits cultivated (lab-grown) meat nationwide and (b) expressly preempts state bans like Florida’s.
Instead, the federal landscape looks mostly unfavorable to cultivated meat:
- At the federal level, multiple bills have been introduced to restrict support for cell‑cultured meat. The REAL Meat Act of 2024 (H.R. 8757) and its successor, the REAL Meat Act of 2025 (H.R. 1116), seek to prohibit the use of federal funds for research, promotion, production, or federal program purchases of cell‑cultured meat, not to legalize or protect it from state bans. (davidson.house.gov) Another bill, the School Lunch Integrity Act, aims to keep cell‑cultivated meat out of federal school meal programs. (rounds.senate.gov) None of these are broad legalizations or preemption statutes, and none have become law in a way that overturns state bans.
- Meanwhile, more states have enacted outright bans on the manufacture or sale of cultivated meat, moving in the opposite direction of the prediction. Florida (SB 1084), Alabama (SB 23), and Mississippi have all passed bans, and by mid‑2025 Texas joined them with SB 261; analyses list additional states such as Indiana, Montana, Missouri, and Nebraska among those with bans or strong restrictions. (aglaw.psu.edu)
- The legal challenges to Florida’s ban are proceeding under existing federal meat laws (e.g., Federal Meat Inspection Act, Poultry Products Inspection Act) and constitutional doctrines like the Dormant Commerce Clause and Supremacy Clause, but no new federal statute has been enacted that clearly and expressly preempts state cultivated‑meat bans. Judges in the Florida litigation have explicitly noted that current federal approvals for cultivated chicken do not themselves stop states from banning these products. (health.wusf.usf.edu)
However, Friedberg’s time window was “over the next couple of years” from a March 15, 2024 release date, which reasonably extends to around March 2026. Because that horizon has not yet elapsed, it is too early to say with certainty that Congress will not enact some preemptive, pro‑cultivated‑meat statute before then, even though current legislative trends run against his scenario.
Given that the deadline he implied is still in the future and no definitive contrary event (such as a constitutional ruling locking in state authority to ban cultivated meat regardless of future federal law) has occurred, the prediction cannot yet be judged definitively right or wrong. It is therefore best scored as inconclusive (too early to tell).