There is not yet enough elapsed time or clear market evidence to judge this long‑term consolidation prediction.

The claim is that “over the coming years of the AI era” each major professional‑services vertical (law, accounting, creative, etc.) will see market share concentrate into one leading vertical AI provider that becomes the default service (a de‑facto “one lawyer service,” “one accounting service,” etc.). That is a multi‑year, possibly decade‑scale forecast.

As of late 2025, the evidence we do have shows:

• Legal AI is still highly fragmented. Multiple heavily funded startups and incumbents compete—e.g., Harvey (used by many top US law firms), Luminance, Legora, Eudia, Spellbook, Paxton, Theo, Marveri, and others—without a single provider clearly dominating all legal work or behaving as a universal “one lawyer service.” (businessinsider.com)
• Accounting AI likewise has several major players. Intuit’s QuickBooks/Intuit Assist is prominent and has been recognized as a leading AI accounting assistant, but it competes with Xero, Sage (Copilot), SAP (Joule), and others adding comparable AI functionality, again with no single universal monopoly‑like provider. (prnewswire.com)
• Major vendors are only now rolling out broader AI‑native accounting platforms (e.g., Intuit Accountant Suite launched in October 2025), which suggests we are still in an early competitive build‑out stage rather than a post‑consolidation equilibrium. (quickbooks.intuit.com)

However, the prediction is explicitly about what will happen "over the coming years" of the AI era, not by 2025. Current fragmentation neither proves nor disproves the future convergence Friedberg described; it only shows that consolidation has not yet occurred.

Because:

1. The time horizon is vague but clearly longer than ~1.5 years from March 2024 to November 2025; and
2. Present market structure (many competing vertical AI offerings, no clear single‑provider dominance per vertical) does not rule out future consolidation,

the correct assessment today is “inconclusive (too early)”, not right or wrong.