Chamath framed this as a 5–10 year outlook (“a very bad next 5 to 10 years”), starting from roughly March 2024. As of today (November 30, 2025), only about 1.75 years of that horizon have elapsed, so the full outcome of a 5–10 year prediction cannot yet be judged.

Empirically, Apple’s performance since the prediction does not look “very bad” so far:

• Apple’s stock closed at about $169 on March 8, 2024 and trades around $279 now, a gain of roughly 65% in under two years. (statmuse.com)
• For fiscal 2024, Apple reported $391B in revenue (up ~2% year over year) and net income of about $93.7B, only slightly below the prior year, with profit margins still around 24%. (simplywall.st)
• Apple has continued to set records in Services revenue and posted a new record September-quarter revenue in Q4 2024, indicating ongoing growth engines rather than broad business deterioration. (apple.com)

While these data points suggest the prediction is not tracking as “very bad” so far, it was explicitly about a multi‑year period extending to 2029–2034. Because that window is far from over, the correct status today is “inconclusive (too early)”, not definitively right or wrong.