Public reporting shows significant pressure on regulators over OpenAI’s nonprofit/for‑profit setup, but no clear confirmation that the IRS itself has launched (let alone “aggressively” pursued) a tax investigation comparable to the Mozilla case.

Key points:

• Investigative reporting based on OpenAI’s IRS tax‑exempt application highlights how far it has shifted from its original nonprofit commitments and notes that nonprofit‑law experts question whether its structure still fits charitable rules, but these pieces do not report any IRS enforcement action—only potential exposure. (apnews.com)
• Other U.S. regulators have opened formal probes (e.g., the FTC’s investigation of OpenAI over privacy and cybersecurity issues), showing substantial federal scrutiny, but this is unrelated to tax/nonprofit status. (foley.com)
• State authorities, especially the California Attorney General, are reported to be examining OpenAI’s conversion and asset-transfer issues, again underscoring legal and regulatory concern over the nonprofit/for‑profit boundary—but that’s state charity regulation, not the IRS. (route-fifty.com)
• In July 2025, watchdog group The Midas Project filed a formal complaint with the IRS alleging OpenAI’s structure and Sam Altman’s dual roles may violate tax‑exemption rules, and multiple outlets covered this and explicitly called on the IRS to investigate. Those stories consistently describe a complaint to the IRS and “calls” for an investigation, not a confirmed IRS action. (themidasproject.com)
• At least one analysis piece frames the situation as OpenAI’s model being “under IRS scrutiny,” but on inspection it is describing the watchdog complaint and possible or hypothetical consequences (“the opening of an IRS investigation could have…”), not citing any official confirmation that such an investigation has begun. (datastudios.org)

Because IRS examinations of specific taxpayers are generally confidential unless they surface through litigation or official statements, the absence of reporting doesn’t prove there is no investigation. Conversely, the available coverage never confirms that the IRS is “on this like crazy” in the way Jason predicted; all we can see is external pressure and speculation.

Given that:

• Sufficient time has passed since March 2024 that such an investigation could exist, but
• IRS actions, if any, are opaque and not publicly documented,

we can’t reliably say whether the prediction is right or wrong based on public evidence. That makes the outcome ambiguous under your rubric.