Available usage data suggest that Apple’s global iOS share has been roughly flat or slightly down since the prediction, but the forecast explicitly referred to gains "over time" / "over the coming years," so it’s too early to judge it as clearly right or wrong.

What the data show so far

• Around the time of the episode (Q1 2024), StatCounter-based summaries put global mobile OS share at roughly 70–71% Android vs ~28% iOS (e.g., Q1 2024: Android 70.71%, iOS 28.54%). (soax.com)
• For 2024 as a whole, multiple StatCounter-derived sources show iOS in the 27–28% range (Android roughly 71%). (goodfirms.co)
• By 2025, StatCounter’s global mobile(-and-console) OS data and derivatives generally show Android ~72–73% and iOS ~27% (e.g., October 2025: Android 72.56%, iOS 26.99%; year-aggregated figures: Android ~72.5%, iOS ~27.0–27.5%). (gs.statcounter.com)

So, compared to the ~27–28% iOS share at the time of the prediction, today’s ~27% level does not yet reflect the clear, sustained "stealing" of share from Android that Friedberg anticipated.

Why this is still inconclusive

• The prediction was framed as a multi‑year structural story (rising GDP per capita in emerging markets + iOS remaining the superior experience → iOS gradually gaining share). That sort of shift would reasonably be evaluated over a horizon of several years, not ~1.5–2 years.
• Over just this short window, market share has been essentially flat with small statistical noise; that’s not strong evidence for or against a longer‑term directional call.

Given the vague time horizon ("over time," "over the coming years") and the modest elapsed time since March 2024, the fairest assessment is that the prediction’s accuracy cannot yet be definitively determined.