• What was predicted. Chamath said that if two or three more large companies publicly shared Klarna‑style AI customer‑support results with clear, quantitative gains, then Teleperformance (a large call‑center/BPO firm) would become “a $1 billion company in short order.”

• Did the precondition happen? Since Klarna’s early‑2024 disclosure that its AI assistant handled about two‑thirds of customer‑service chats and replaced work equivalent to ~700 agents with faster resolution times and fewer repeat inquiries, multiple other large companies have publicized similarly substantial AI‑driven customer‑support efficiency gains with concrete metrics. (reddit.com)
– H&M has reported that its generative‑AI chatbot cut customer‑service response times by up to ~70%. (aiprm.com)
– Bank of America has highlighted that its virtual assistant Erica has handled around three billion customer interactions and taken on work equivalent to roughly 11,000 employees, explicitly framing this as a major AI productivity lever in customer service and banking operations. (reuters.com)
– Lyft disclosed that its Claude‑powered AI customer assistant cut average support resolution time by about 87%. (datagrom.com)
– Other well‑known firms (e.g., Octopus Energy, Vodafone, Sephora, Bank of America again via Erica) are cited in industry roundups as having materially reduced customer‑service workloads or response times using AI assistants. (linkedin.com)
These meet the spirit of “big companies” publicly touting measurable AI customer‑support productivity gains, so the condition of the prediction is effectively satisfied.

• What actually happened to Teleperformance’s market cap.
– Around the time of the prediction (late 2023), Teleperformance’s market cap was roughly €8.0–8.1 billion (≈$8.9B) at year‑end 2023. (stockanalysis.com)
– By year‑end 2024 it had fallen to about €4.9 billion (≈$5.1B), and by November 28, 2025 it was about €3.4 billion (≈$3.9–4.0B). (stockanalysis.com)
– Historical data from multiple sources show no point in 2024–2025 where Teleperformance’s market cap approached $1 billion; instead it has remained several times higher, even after a substantial multi‑year decline.

• Assessment.
– The trigger Chamath described (multiple big companies broadcasting Klarna‑like AI customer‑support productivity wins with hard numbers) has, in broad economic and public‑disclosure terms, occurred.
– The outcome he forecast—Teleperformance rapidly collapsing to roughly a $1B market cap once that happened—did not occur; as of late 2025 Teleperformance is still around $3.5–4.0B. (stockanalysis.com)

Because the condition has been met while the predicted consequence has clearly failed to materialize even well beyond any plausible “short order” window, this prediction is best judged as wrong.