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Last updated Nov 29, 2025
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Chamath @ 00:22:59Wrong
marketstech
If Google's search market share falls by roughly 3–5 percentage points from about 92% (e.g., to 89–87%), the public market will respond by cutting Google's market capitalization by approximately 50% within a short period following that share loss.
All Google needs to see is 300, 500 basis points of change. And the market cap of this company is going to get cut in half. Okay. Because there is only one way to go when you have 92% share of a market and that is down.View on YouTube
Explanation

Available data show that the condition Chamath described has effectively occurred, but the market reaction he predicted did not.

  1. Google’s search share has fallen from the low‑90s to the high‑80s.

    • StatCounter-based summaries put Google’s global search share at about 91.5% in January 2024.【1†turn1search10】
    • By late 2024, StatCounter data showed Google dropping below 90% for three consecutive months, hitting 89.34% (Oct), 89.99% (Nov), 89.73% (Dec).【1†turn1search5】
    • Business Insider, citing StatCounter, reports Google’s global share fell from ~93% in March 2023 to 89.71% in March 2025, and from about 91% in March 2024 to 89.71% in March 2025.【4†turn4view0】 Statista likewise puts Google at 89.62% in March 2025.【1†turn1search3】
    • Other 2024–25 overviews describe Google’s share as ~89–90% worldwide, confirming a sustained dip of a few percentage points from the earlier 91–93% range.【0†turn0search7】【0†turn0search9】

    Taken together, this is roughly the 3‑percentage‑point erosion (from about 92–93% down to ~89–90%) that his scenario (“300–500 basis points of change”) contemplated.

  2. Alphabet’s market cap did not get cut in half; it surged to record highs.

    • Alphabet’s end‑of‑year market cap was about $1.76T in 2023, $2.36T in 2024, and is estimated around $3.87T for 2025, per compiled market‑cap histories.【2†turn2search0】【2†turn2search4】
    • Real‑time and news coverage in late 2025 describe Alphabet approaching a $4T valuation, with the stock up roughly 70% year‑to‑date and near all‑time highs.【0†turn0news12】【2†turn2news12】

Given that (a) Google has indeed experienced on the order of a few‑percentage‑point drop in global search share from its prior ~92–93% dominance, yet (b) Alphabet’s market capitalization has risen dramatically instead of being cut in half, the specific prediction that a 3–5 point share loss would trigger a ~50% market‑cap collapse is not borne out by actual market behavior so far.

Because the antecedent (a multi‑point share decline from the low‑90s) has effectively occurred and the predicted consequence (halving of market cap in short order) clearly has not, the forecast is best classified as wrong, rather than merely “too early to tell.”