Available reporting shows that after the late‑February 2024 "congress of deputies" in Transnistria, local leaders appealed to Russia for “protection” from Moldovan economic and political pressure, but did not formally request annexation or announce a new referendum to join Russia. Multiple outlets note that such an annexation appeal had been widely rumored in advance, yet officials in Chișinău, Kyiv, and Tiraspol later explicitly denied that any annexation request was made; the adopted resolution instead asked Moscow for measures to protect Transnistria and complained of an “economic war” by Moldova. (regtrends.com)

Western governments did react warily to Transnistria’s February 2024 appeal—U.S. and European officials framed it as part of ongoing Russian pressure and hybrid tactics toward Moldova, not as a new, concrete step of territorial annexation. (theguardian.com) There is no clear evidence that this episode was treated as proof that Russia was about to “invade multiple countries in Europe,” nor that it directly triggered a discrete, major escalation in the Ukraine war distinct from the broader, already‑ongoing conflict dynamics.

Because the key trigger condition in the prediction—Transnistria formally seeking annexation and/or holding a new referendum to join Russia after the February 2024 discussions—has not occurred, the core claim about how the West would respond and how much the Ukraine war would escalate remains untested. We therefore cannot determine whether the predicted reaction would have been right or wrong, and the outcome is best classified as ambiguous.