Evidence strongly indicates that Chamath’s conditional prediction has come true as of late 2025.

1. Starting point (“a billion something”)

   • Groq was valued at about $1.1B after its 2021 Series C round, which is consistent with Chamath’s early‑2024 description of it being worth “a billion‑something.” (econotimes.com)
   • In August 2024, Groq raised $640M in a Series D round at a $2.8B valuation, confirming that as it entered the mid‑2020s it was still in the low‑single‑digit billions. (reuters.com)

2. Scaling LPUs (“produce these things at scale”)

   • Following that funding, Groq stated plans to deploy more than 108,000 Language Processing Units (LPUs) by the end of Q1 2025, with chips manufactured by GlobalFoundries—clear evidence of an aggressive scale‑up in production and deployment capacity. (economictimes.indiatimes.com)
   • In February 2025, Saudi Arabia committed $1.5B to procure Groq’s AI chips, expected to drive around $500M in 2025 revenue, further indicating that Groq could actually ship substantial volumes of its LPUs into real deployments. (reuters.com)
   • By late 2025, Groq was planning a major global data‑center expansion specifically to meet surging demand for its high‑speed AI inference hardware, again pointing to practical, at‑scale production and deployment rather than just prototype volumes. (winbuzzer.com)

3. Resulting market‑cap / valuation increase

   • In August 2024, the company’s valuation rose to $2.8B with the Series D. (reuters.com)
   • In 2025 Groq then pursued additional large funding rounds. Reports in July 2025 described talks to raise funding at about a $6B valuation, nearly doubling the prior year’s $2.8B figure. (reuters.com)
   • In September 2025, Groq closed a $750M round that more than doubled its valuation to $6.9B in just over a year, with multiple outlets confirming the $6.9B figure. (reuters.com)

4. Assessment against the prediction

   • Condition: If Groq could “produce these things [LPUs] at scale.” — The large planned and actual deployments (100k+ LPUs), major chip procurement deals, and global data‑center build‑out strongly indicate that Groq did advance to large‑scale production and deployment of its LPUs. (economictimes.indiatimes.com)
   • Outcome: From a roughly $1–2B range in the early‑2020s to about $6.9B by September 2025, Groq’s private valuation increased several‑fold, clearly “substantially” above a low‑single‑digit‑billion baseline within the “following years” after the February 2024 podcast.

Given that both the if condition (scaling LPUs) and the then outcome (substantial valuation/market‑cap increase) are satisfied by late 2025, Chamath’s prediction is best judged as right.