Chamath’s claim bundles several linked predictions: (1) the first major real‑world impact of Sora‑like AI video tools will be in pornography, (2) synthetic, non‑human porn will become dominant, and (3) this will “destroy pornography in OnlyFans” / significantly erode human‑creator platforms.

On point (1), there is some support but not a clean confirmation:

• OpenAI’s own Sora products explicitly ban graphic sexual content: prompts requesting sexual/nude material are blocked and outputs are filtered, making official Sora a poor vehicle for mainstream porn. (pureai.com)
• However, other AI video tools targeted at adult content have grown quickly. Industry pieces and market reports suggest AI‑generated porn is already a substantial minority of new content: around 30% of new adult content in 2025 on major platforms, with similar estimates for AI’s share of new uploads and LGBTQ+ segments. (reelmind.ai) Broader analyses estimate 15–20% of new adult content consumed in 2025 involves AI (deepfakes, generators, AI chat/companions). (whatstrending.com) Other market data show rapid AI adoption in the adult sector and a projected AI‑porn market of about $2.4B by 2026, with high adoption of synthetic performers and virtual companions. (gitnux.org)
  This suggests the adult industry is indeed one of the earliest and heaviest adopters of generative video, which partially tracks the “you’ll see it here first” intuition, but it’s not exclusive to porn and is hard to prove as the single first/primary impact domain.

On points (2) and (3), the core outcomes have clearly not materialized yet:

• Even optimistic, industry‑friendly sources put AI‑generated porn at roughly a large minority (≈15–30%) of new content, not the majority; human‑performed porn still dominates total supply and consumption. (reelmind.ai)
• Data from OnlyFans show continued strong growth rather than erosion. Official filings and analyses report:
  • 2023 revenue around $1.3B with nearly 20% year‑over‑year growth and billions paid out to creators. (upmarket.co)
  • For 2024, user accounts up 24% to ~377.5M, creators up to ~4.6M, total payments up to $7.2B, with pre‑tax profits and owner dividends hitting record highs ahead of a possible ~$8B sale. (businessinsider.com)
    There is no evidence that AI porn has “destroyed” or even measurably weakened OnlyFans’ core human‑creator business so far.
• Some subscription competitors (e.g., Fanvue) do lean into AI‑generated models, and at one point AI creators made about 15% of Fanvue’s revenue, showing a real but still partial shift toward synthetic performers on certain platforms. (en.wikipedia.org) This indicates competitive pressure and experimentation, not wholesale replacement.

Because Chamath explicitly framed the outcome as happening “over time”, and we are only about 21 months past the February 2024 prediction, it is too early to say whether synthetic porn will ultimately become dominant or whether it will meaningfully undercut human‑based platforms in the longer term. Current evidence shows:

• AI porn is growing fast and is an important early use‑case for generative video.
• It has not yet become the dominant form of porn.
• Human‑creator businesses like OnlyFans are, so far, growing rather than collapsing.

Given the vague time horizon and mixed signal—some early support for the “porn will adopt this first” intuition, but clear non‑realization of the stronger claims about dominance and destruction—the fairest assessment as of November 30, 2025 is **“inconclusive (too early)” rather than definitively right or wrong.