Sacks’ claim was about the shape of the US commercial and multifamily real estate downturn: not a single, short, 2008‑style crash centered in one year, but a drawn‑out, rolling crisis as loans and leases come due and have to be refinanced at higher rates.

Evidence since 2024 strongly matches that description:

• Data on loan maturities show a large multi‑year “maturity wall” rather than a one‑year cliff. S&P Global estimated about $950B of CRE mortgages maturing in 2024, rising to nearly $1T in 2025 and peaking around $1.26T in 2027, explicitly noting the refinancing challenge will not be resolved quickly. (spglobal.com) The St. Louis Fed similarly highlighted that roughly $1.7T (≈30% of CRE debt) matures in 2024–2026, emphasizing refinancing/repricing risk over those years rather than in a single period. (stlouisfed.org)
• Other institutional analyses reinforce this staggered, multi‑year timeline. Franklin Templeton, drawing on Trepp data, cites about $1.2T in CRE loans maturing in 2024–25 and another ~$1.8T in 2026–28, again framing it as a wall of maturities extending across several years. (franklintempleton.com) Industry and credit‑data firms (e.g., CRED iQ / Commercial Observer, GlobeSt) likewise show large securitized CRE maturities in 2025–26 and another wave in 2029, not a single‑year lump. (globest.com)
• Banks and regulators describe the problem as prolonged pressure rather than a short shock. The Financial Times reported U.S. banks facing about $2T of maturing property debt over three years, with office and multifamily singled out as especially troubled. (ft.com) Reuters’ review of regional banks in late 2024 stresses that CRE challenges from deteriorating office loans and refinancing risks are expected to “persist for years” as large volumes of debt roll over. (reuters.com)
• Distress has indeed been emerging in waves tied to maturities, not as a one‑off collapse. CMBS data show CRE delinquency rates rising through 2024–25, with multifamily delinquencies in particular jumping several percentage points year‑over‑year and office remaining the most stressed. (reddit.com) At the same time, lenders have repeatedly extended loans and pushed maturities out, which GlobeSt notes has literally moved the “maturity wall” from an expected peak in 2024 toward 2026—turning what could have been a single acute event into a drawn‑out refinancing squeeze. (globest.com)

By late 2025, we clearly see (1) a large block of CRE and multifamily debt coming due over multiple years, (2) refinancing at higher rates producing ongoing waves of distress and defaults, and (3) no single short, concentrated crisis year. That pattern is exactly what Sacks described as a “rolling crisis” driven by staggered debt rollovers, so his prediction is best judged right.