As of November 30, 2025, parts of Sacks’s prediction are partially aligned with reality, but the forecast explicitly covers “the next several years,” so it’s too early to give a definitive verdict.

On performance and market leadership:

• OpenAI has continued to ship frontier proprietary models (GPT‑4.5, GPT‑4.1, GPT‑5, GPT‑5.1, o‑series reasoning models). Usage data from Langfuse for October 2024–September 2025 show that the majority of the top‑used models in real applications are OpenAI models (GPT‑4o mini, GPT‑4o, GPT‑4.1, GPT‑4.1 mini, GPT‑5 variants, etc.), suggesting that OpenAI is still a dominant commercial provider on the application layer.【turn0search0】
• However, competitors have made substantial gains. Anthropic’s Claude Opus 4.5 is reported to beat Google Gemini 3 Pro and OpenAI’s GPT‑5.1 on some coding benchmarks (e.g., SWE‑Bench Verified) and to lead in enterprise AI adoption with about 32% share vs. ~25% for OpenAI.【turn0news13】 Open‑source and non‑OpenAI models (e.g., DeepSeek, Qwen, Llama) now top various academic and community leaderboards; ensembles of smaller open‑source models can outperform GPT‑4.1 on a majority of evaluated datasets in at least one published study.【turn0search1】【turn0academia29】 This makes the idea of a clear, uncontested performance “lead” more debatable.

On financial success:

• OpenAI’s financial metrics look strong on growth and valuation: it raised about $40 billion at a $300 billion valuation in April 2025 and reported annualized revenue of roughly $12 billion by July 2025, up from $3.7 billion in 2024.【turn0search23】 In July 2025 there were tens of millions of paying ChatGPT subscribers, with projections of continued rapid revenue growth.【turn0news12】
• At the same time, the company is still losing large amounts of money and is projected to require over $200 billion in additional capital by 2030 to fund compute and infrastructure, according to HSBC estimates.【turn0news14】 Whether this trajectory ultimately counts as long‑term “financial success” is uncertain and depends on outcomes well beyond 2025.

Because (a) the claim is about maintaining a lead “over the next several years,” a period that has not yet fully elapsed, and (b) both competitive performance and long‑run financial sustainability are actively in flux, the most accurate assessment today is that the prediction’s ultimate truth value is inconclusive (too early to tell).