Available data shows that OpenAI’s ChatGPT currently has a very large lead in direct consumer chatbot usage, but the prediction is conditional, vague in scope, and not time‑bounded, so it can’t be cleanly scored as fully right or wrong.

On the “market share” side:

• ChatGPT is by far the most visited AI chatbot site globally, with ~46.6B visits from Aug 2024–Jul 2025; the next ten chatbots combined are under 10B, implying ChatGPT has ~80%+ of traffic among the top players.【0search0】0search1】0search11】
• Similarweb-based reporting shows ChatGPT getting nearly 6B visits in Aug 2025, about 8× Gemini and far ahead of other rivals.【0search3】
• Some estimates put ChatGPT at ~60% of the U.S. AI‑chatbot market.【0search5】
• In October 2025, Sam Altman reported 800M weekly active ChatGPT users, roughly double the combined weekly users of Meta AI, Gemini, Grok, Perplexity, and Claude.【2news13】 This strongly supports the idea that OpenAI has captured a dominant share of consumer-facing GPT/chatbot usage, at least in the narrow sense of standalone assistants.

On the “quality lead over open source” and scope assumptions:

• Benchmarks generally still show GPT‑4o slightly ahead of open-source LLaMA 3.x models on broad reasoning/knowledge metrics such as MMLU and multimodal tasks, i.e., a modest average quality edge.【1search0】2search9】
• But top open-weight models (e.g., Llama 3.1 405B, DeepSeek V3/R1) now match or beat GPT‑4/4o on some benchmarks, including MMLU and certain reasoning tasks, indicating that the gap has narrowed and sometimes reverses depending on the test.【2search5】1search2】1search7】1news15】 That makes it unclear whether OpenAI still has the kind of clear, consistent “little bit of a lead” the quote assumes.
• The prediction also refers to the broad “consumer search / GPT market,” not just standalone chatbots. In that wider space, AI assistants embedded in other products are significant: Meta AI reported almost 500M monthly users by late 2024,【2search4】 ByteDance’s Doubao is the top chatbot in China with over 150M MAUs,【0news14】 and various regional or app‑integrated assistants (Gemini in Google Search, Doubao in Douyin, etc.) capture substantial consumer query volume that doesn’t pass through OpenAI at all.【0search2】0search8】

Because:

1. the statement is conditional and probabilistic ("if" and "could"),
2. key terms like “little bit of a lead” and “vast, vast majority” are not precisely defined, and
3. the relevant market (standalone chatbots vs all consumer AI query experiences) is contested, we can’t decisively say the prediction has clearly succeeded or failed as of late 2025. It is best classified as ambiguous rather than definitively right, wrong, or merely “too early.”