Jason @ 01:26:45Wrong
governmenteconomymarkets
In response to mounting losses in US commercial real estate (particularly office) that threaten creditors and investors, the US Treasury under Janet Yellen (or equivalent federal authorities if she is no longer in office) will ultimately implement a bailout or support mechanism that protects the main creditors/investors exposed to these real‑estate debts, while avoiding an explicit direct bailout of the banks themselves.
Yeah, I mean Janet Yellen's just going to bail these folks out. I mean, she won't bail out the banks themselves, but she'll bail out the creditors. Obviously the people holding the bag, they'll get bailed.View on YouTube
Explanation
Available evidence through November 30, 2025 shows no U.S. Treasury–led bailout or dedicated support mechanism aimed at protecting the main creditors/investors in troubled U.S. commercial real estate debt, as Jason predicted.
Key points:
- Janet Yellen and the Treasury/FSOC have repeatedly acknowledged commercial real estate (especially office) stress and losses, but framed it as manageable and not a systemic banking risk, focusing on supervisory monitoring and bank-by-bank risk management rather than new bailout facilities. (ktvz.com)
- A 2024 House Oversight hearing on the health of commercial real estate markets explicitly records industry representatives saying that the CRE industry is “not here seeking a bailout of any sort” and that “there is no bailout”, with an emphasis on regulatory flexibility and private‑sector adjustments instead. (congress.gov)
- Global and U.S. regulators (FSB, FSOC) have highlighted vulnerabilities in CRE and rising delinquencies, but their responses focus on enhanced oversight, data, and supervisory guidance, not on Treasury or Fed programs that make CRE creditors whole. (crefc.org)
- By mid‑2025, office CMBS delinquencies had surpassed their 2008 peak, with commentary explicitly noting that “there’s no bailout coming this time” for office/CRE investors, indicating that creditors are bearing losses rather than being rescued by a federal backstop. (thebsideway.com)
- No credible reporting or official documentation indicates the creation of any Treasury (or broader federal) program in 2024–2025 analogous to TARP/PPIP that targets commercial real estate loans or CMBS for the purpose of bailing out landlords, bondholders, or other CRE creditors; existing facilities like the Bank Term Funding Program were bank‑liquidity tools, created in 2023 and not designed as CRE‑creditor bailouts. (en.wikipedia.org)
Because the core predicted event—a Yellen‑era Treasury bailout/support mechanism specifically protecting CRE creditors/investors while avoiding an explicit bank bailout—has not occurred and current policy/public statements point in the opposite direction (no such bailout), the prediction is best classified as wrong as of November 30, 2025.