As of late 2025, the prediction’s main time horizon (“over the long term,” roughly the next decade) has not played out yet, so it’s too early to judge the core claim about where subscriber counts and business models will settle.

Subscribers:

• Netflix has already surpassed the lower end of the 300–500 million range, with around 301–302 million paid memberships by the end of 2024 and estimates of ~310 million in early 2025, so the scale Jason envisioned for Netflix looks plausible and in some sense already realized. (cnbc.com)
• Disney+ remains far below that range, with roughly 131–132 million global subscribers as of Q3 2025, though it is still growing.(streamingbetter.com) Long‑range industry forecasts currently project Disney+ at under 200 million subscribers by 2029 (around 192–196 million), which is well short of 300 million but still leaves several years beyond 2029 before the end of the “next decade” window.(whatsondisneyplus.com) So it’s impossible yet to say definitively whether Disney+ will ever reach the 300–500 million range or not.

“Money printing machines” and content spending:

• Netflix and Disney’s streaming businesses are becoming strongly cash‑generative. Netflix is guiding to about $9 billion in free cash flow for 2025, which is consistent with Jason’s idea that mature, scaled streamers can throw off substantial cash.(tipranks.com) Disney’s direct‑to‑consumer segment (Disney+, Hulu, ESPN+) has moved from large losses to sustained quarterly operating profits in 2024–2025, with hundreds of millions of dollars of operating income and a stated goal of roughly $1 billion in streaming profit for fiscal 2025.(cnbc.com) This directionally supports the “money printing” part, though it’s still early.
• However, the claim that these services “won’t need a ton of new content” is not borne out so far. Netflix is increasing its content budget, planning to spend about $18 billion on content in 2025 (up from ~$16.2 billion in 2024), and management explicitly says they are “not anywhere near a ceiling” on content spend.(hypebeast.com) Disney likewise continues to invest heavily in new originals and sports rights to fuel Disney+ and Hulu. Profitability is improving, but it is not coming from a dramatic pullback in new content; rather, it’s coming from a mix of price hikes, ad tiers, and more disciplined spending.

Because:

• Netflix has hit the predicted scale but Disney+ has not, and forecasts are uncertain;
• both services are trending toward being highly cash‑generative, partially validating the “money printing” idea;
• yet their ongoing large content investments undercut the specific notion that they will not need much new content;
• and, crucially, we are less than two years into a roughly ten‑year prediction window,

the overall outcome of Jason’s long‑term prediction cannot be definitively labeled as right or wrong at this point. It is therefore best classified as inconclusive (too early).