Based on public reporting through 30 November 2025, the prediction has not come true.

The prediction: that the January 2024 U.S. and allied strikes on Houthi targets in Yemen would put the U.S. and Israel on a path to a larger war in the Middle East featuring the U.S. and Israel going to war with Iran (i.e., a direct U.S.–Iran and Israel–Iran war, not just proxy or limited strikes).

What actually happened:

1. January 2024 strikes and follow-on Red Sea campaign
   – On 11–12 January 2024 the U.S. and U.K., with support from other allies, launched air and missile strikes against Houthi targets in Yemen in response to attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea.
   – These strikes evolved into an ongoing campaign (often described as Operation Prosperity Guardian and related actions), but they remained limited strikes against Houthi targets, not Iran itself.

2. Escalation with Iran short of all‑out war
   – In April 2024, Iran launched an unprecedented drone- and missile-attack directly against Israel, and Israel carried out limited retaliatory strikes inside Iran. These were widely reported as the first direct overt exchange of fire between the two states, but were also described by officials and analysts as carefully limited to avoid a wider regional war.
   – The United States provided significant defensive support to Israel (intercepting missiles/drones, intelligence and diplomatic backing), but did not enter into a declared or de facto full-scale war with Iran; U.S. action remained defensive and deterrent.

3. No U.S.–Iran or Israel–Iran war as of late 2025
   – As of 30 November 2025, there is no declaration of war by the United States or Israel on Iran, and no sustained large-scale U.S. or Israeli bombing or ground campaign against Iran comparable to a formal interstate war.
   – The region has seen ongoing tensions, proxy clashes, sanctions, covert operations, and occasional direct limited strikes, but these are qualitatively different from the “larger war in the Middle East featuring the US and Israel going to war with Iran” that the quote describes.

Because the key condition – the U.S. and Israel actually going to war with Iran – has not occurred by the evaluation date, the prediction is wrong, not merely “inconclusive.” The prediction is about the trajectory leading to a specific outcome (a larger war involving direct US/Israel–Iran war), and that outcome has failed to materialize in the medium term after the January 2024 strikes.