Available evidence shows partial movement in the direction Chamath described but not the end‑state he predicted, and his timeline was explicitly open‑ended ("eventually"), so it’s too early to say if he’ll ultimately be right or wrong.

1. High‑stakes professions (pilots, safety‑critical aviation)
• American Airlines agreed in late 2024 to drop diversity‑focused hiring and promotion practices after a civil‑rights complaint, with both regulators and advocates explicitly framing the change as ending race/sex‑based preferences so pilot selection is based on flight hours, credentials, and training rather than DEI benchmarks. (westernstandard.news)
• In 2025, the Trump administration ordered the FAA to end DEI‑based hiring and restore strictly merit‑based standards for safety‑critical roles (air traffic controllers, safety inspectors, aviation engineers). (hstoday.us)
• More broadly, Executive Order 14173 rescinded long‑standing affirmative‑action obligations on federal contractors and explicitly reoriented federal hiring toward “merit‑based” criteria, while a suite of DEI‑rollback orders purged DEI programs across the federal government, which includes many high‑stakes professions (military, federal health systems, regulators). (en.wikipedia.org)
These moves match part of his mechanism: campaigns against DEI framed around safety, competence and “irrefutable” skill requirements.

2. Hollywood / entertainment
• Paramount Global has scaled back DEI: dropping numerical diversity goals, halting collection of demographic data on applicants except where legally required, and replacing its DEI framework with a vaguer “Workforce Culture and Development” initiative, while scrubbing explicit DEI language from public materials. (them.us)
• As part of its proposed merger with Paramount, Skydance told the FCC it would eliminate DEI programs at CBS News, shut its global inclusion office, and change hiring/promotion rules; the company also emphasized that Skydance itself does not operate DEI programs. (nypost.com)
• The broader entertainment sector is under regulatory and political pressure: Disney has been investigated by the FCC over DEI‑linked casting and compensation, and industry reporting notes a wider corporate trend of rolling back or rebranding DEI in response to the Supreme Court’s 2023 affirmative‑action ruling and Trump‑era enforcement. (marketwatch.com)
So we do see notable DEI retrenchment in parts of Hollywood, but it’s patchy and contested, not a wholesale “cleansing” of DEI‑based hiring/promotion across the industry.

3. Symphony orchestras and classical music
Here the prediction clearly has not come true so far: • Major U.S. orchestras (e.g., Charlotte Symphony, Baltimore Symphony, Hartford Symphony, Anderson Symphony) continue to maintain or expand explicit DEI commitments in hiring, programming, and governance through 2024–25, publishing updated DEI statements, reports, and strategic plans. (charlottesymphony.org)
• The League of American Orchestras still promotes an active DEI strategy for the field, and sector press in 2025 continues to highlight new equity‑oriented initiatives for underrepresented communities rather than their dismantling. (symphony.org)
• When the San Francisco Conservatory and San Francisco Symphony briefly paused the Emerging Black Composers Project after a federal memo threatening funding for DEI‑linked programs, the Symphony subsequently chose to continue the initiative under its own administration, explicitly in defiance of political pressure. (sfchronicle.com)
• Youth and regional programs likewise advertise DEI as a core value into late 2024–2025. (hiyouthsymphony.org)
Overall, orchestras are leaning into, not abandoning, explicit DEI commitments, even as they navigate new federal constraints.

4. Sequencing & overall judgment
Chamath’s claim had two key parts:

1. Mechanism/sequence – DEI would first be dismantled in “irrefutable” high‑stakes jobs (e.g., pilots, certain doctors/surgeons) where only skill can be allowed, and
2. End‑state – that this logic would then “cleanse” DEI from Hollywood and symphony orchestras.

As of November 30, 2025:

• There is clear evidence of DEI rollbacks justified on safety/merit grounds in aviation and other high‑stakes federal domains, and some evidence of politically driven DEI retreat or rebranding in Hollywood. (westernstandard.news)
• There is little to no evidence that symphony orchestras have been “cleansed” of DEI; on the contrary, the field remains openly DEI‑oriented, even when funding pressure increases. (charlottesymphony.org)
• The trend in Hollywood is partial and uneven, not an industry‑wide eradication of DEI‑based hiring and promotion.

Because his forecast was explicitly framed as something that would happen “eventually,” the current state (less than two years later) doesn’t yet let us say that he was definitively right or wrong about a full rollback in Hollywood and orchestras. There are signs in the direction he anticipated in some high‑stakes professions and parts of Hollywood, but the predicted comprehensive “cleansing” across Hollywood and especially symphony orchestras has clearly not occurred. That makes the outcome inconclusive (too early to tell) rather than clearly right or wrong at this point.