Evidence on this prediction points in different directions depending on how you define the "public software index" and the benchmark for "late‑stage private tech/SaaS" valuations.

1. Public tech/software indices in 2024

• A reasonable proxy for a public software index, the iShares Expanded Tech‑Software Sector ETF (IGV), returned +23.41% in 2024 on a total‑return basis.【3search3】
• A more focused public SaaS benchmark, the Bessemer Emerging Cloud Index (EMCLOUD), rose about 14.3% in 2024, far below mega‑cap hyperscalers whose combined market cap rose 29% that year.【2search3】

So public software/tech did positively in 2024, but not uniformly spectacularly, and it underperformed the biggest cloud/AI platform stocks.

2. Late‑stage private SaaS valuations in 2024

• Bessemer’s Cloud 100 (a curated list of top private cloud/SaaS companies) reported that in 2024 its cohort’s aggregate equity value grew to $820B, with the average company valuation up ~25% year‑over‑year – but average revenue multiples fell from 26x in 2023 to 23x in 2024.【2search1】 That is: absolute valuations up, multiples compressed.
• A SaaS‑wide venture report using PitchBook data found that the median revenue multiple for all software venture rounds fell from 11.3x in 2023 to 10.1x in 2024, and that late‑stage (Series C) median pre‑money valuations in 2024 ($225M) were still well below the 2021 peak of $320M, indicating a continued reset versus the bubble era.【1search5】
• PitchBook’s 2024 Annual US VC Valuations Report shows that median annualized valuation growth between rounds for later‑stage startups was at a decade low, with the median Series D+ step‑up only ~1.2x, far below 2021 levels, i.e., many later‑stage rounds were effectively flat.【5search1】
• Sapphire Ventures, looking specifically at Series B+ enterprise software (mostly SaaS), reported that in Q2 2024, 41% of financings were flat or down rounds, the second‑highest level since 2010, and that many secondary transactions cleared well below prior private‑round valuations.【5search3】
• A private‑markets overview noted that, in this environment, “most late‑stage SaaS players are seeing flat or declining valuations,” highlighting Figma as a case where the valuation stayed roughly the same as 2021 while revenue nearly doubled, i.e., companies growing into prior prices rather than getting marked up.【4search3】

At the same time, some broad private‑market indices rebounded strongly from their 2022–23 lows:

• EquityZen’s 2024 review shows that private companies moved from trading at ~45% discounts to last primary rounds in January 2024 to ~11% discounts by Q3 2024, with its Private Markets 100 index showing aggregate price appreciation of ~38% over that period.【5search4】
• Fortune, citing PitchBook, noted that while flat and down rounds hit decade‑high levels in 2024, the median late‑stage pre‑money valuation slightly exceeded 2021’s median, reflecting that the companies still raising are a selected, stronger subset.【4search5】

3. Comparing the trade Chamath described Chamath’s trade was conceptually long public software/tech indices, short late‑stage private tech/SaaS, with the thesis that private late‑stage SaaS valuations would contract or stay flat even as these companies kept growing and issuing dilutive stock‑based comp.

Parts of that thesis did play out:

• There is strong evidence of ongoing multiple compression and valuation stagnation in much of late‑stage private SaaS:
  • Revenue multiples for venture SaaS rounds ticked down in 2024.【1search5】
  • Late‑stage step‑ups were minimal by historical standards; many deals were flat or down.【5search1】【5search3】
  • Case studies like Figma show flat valuations against rapidly rising revenue, exactly the “grow into your 2021 price” dynamic Chamath described.【4search3】
• Meanwhile, a liquid public software index like IGV delivered a solid +23.41% in 2024, confirming that public software exposure would have generated respectable gains.【3search3】

But other data cuts against a clean win for his relative‑value call:

• The top private cloud/SaaS cohort (Cloud 100) saw average valuations rise ~25% in 2024, slightly more than IGV’s 23.41% return, even though their average revenue multiple fell. An investor short that specific high‑quality private basket on headline valuation would likely have lost in price terms over 2024.【2search1】【3search3】
• Secondary markets for leading private tech recovered from very steep discounts; one widely followed index of 100 large private names appreciated around 38% over 2024, again outpacing mainstream public software indices.【5search4】

4. Why the outcome can’t be scored cleanly

• There is no single, agreed‑upon “late‑stage private SaaS index” to put directly against IGV/EMCLOUD. Different samples (Cloud 100, secondary‑traded unicorns, all Series B+ SaaS deals, etc.) give different answers on whether public or private did better in 2024.
• On valuation multiples and the qualitative picture (flat/down rounds, revenue growth with little or no valuation step‑up, dilution from new equity), Chamath’s description of ongoing private‑market compression is broadly supported.【1search5】【5search1】【5search3】【4search3】
• On headline valuation levels/price performance, however, the strong rebound at the top end of the private cloud/SaaS market and in secondary indices means it is not clear that being long a public software ETF and short a representative basket of late‑stage private SaaS in calendar 2024 would have reliably outperformed.【2search1】【5search4】

Because the answer depends heavily on which private cohort and which metric (multiples vs absolute valuations) you choose, the prediction cannot be clearly marked as fully correct or incorrect based on available 2024 data. Hence the classification here as "ambiguous."