Key facts:

• The Koch network’s main political arm, Americans for Prosperity Action (AFP Action), endorsed Nikki Haley in late 2023 and became her second‑largest outside supporter, ultimately spending over $31–32 million backing her in the GOP primaries, plus roughly $10 million in broader anti‑Trump efforts, before abandoning the presidential primary after her South Carolina loss. (opensecrets.org) Haley then went on to lose almost every contest to Trump, winning only Washington, D.C. and Vermont before suspending her campaign in March 2024. (wsj.com) On the presidential side, the prediction that the Koch‑backed Haley “trade” would perform badly was accurate.

• After pulling the plug on Haley, the Koch network deliberately shifted away from the presidential race and concentrated on Senate and House contests, explicitly positioning itself as a check on unified Democratic control rather than as a pro‑Trump force. (time.com) AFP Action became one of the largest outside spenders of the cycle, with roughly $90+ million in independent expenditures for Republicans and against Democrats, and about $10 million against Republicans (largely Trump). (opensecrets.org) This broader activity cannot be summarized as a simple “Haley bet.”

• In marquee Senate races the network had mixed but not uniformly disastrous results. AFP Action heavily backed Republican Sam Brown in Nevada, who narrowly lost to Democratic Sen. Jacky Rosen. (factcheck.org) It also strongly supported Republican Dave McCormick in Pennsylvania; McCormick narrowly defeated incumbent Democrat Bob Casey Jr., flipping that seat and becoming the only GOP challenger to win in a state Trump also flipped in 2024. (factcheck.org) That is a major win on a race where both parties and many outside groups spent heavily.

• Across the entire 2024 cycle, multiple other donors and groups clearly burned even larger sums on losing efforts. For example, Future Forward USA PAC spent about $517 million boosting Kamala Harris and attacking Trump in the presidential race, yet Harris lost the election; this single hybrid PAC outspent AFP Action many times over. (opensecrets.org) By contrast, a Guardian‑summarized report on billionaire spending notes that right‑wing billionaire money overall—including donors like Elon Musk and Miriam Adelson—played a pivotal role in returning Trump to the presidency and securing Republican majorities in both chambers, suggesting that big conservative spending as a bloc was not a net “loser” in 2024. (theguardian.com)

Assessment vs. the prediction:

• Correct elements: The specific anti‑Trump, pro‑Haley bet championed by the Koch network was a clear failure on a dollars‑spent basis: tens of millions achieved essentially no presidential delegates and did not stop Trump from winning the nomination or the White House.

• Where the claim overreaches: Chamath’s prediction goes further, saying that overall in 2024 the Kochs would be “one of the biggest political losers on a dollar‑spent basis.” Available data show AFP Action both lost (Haley, Nevada Senate, various races) and won (notably the Pennsylvania Senate flip and numerous House and state‑level contests), and there is no comprehensive, comparative ROI analysis demonstrating that the Koch network’s net performance was worse than that of other mega‑spenders like Future Forward or various anti‑Trump Republican groups. Some of those clearly spent more money on losing efforts than the Koch network did.

Because the presidential Haley/anti‑Trump strategy did underperform badly but the overall 2024 Koch network record is a mix of significant wins and losses—and we lack evidence ranking them as among the very worst donors by return on investment—the strongest we can say is that the prediction is partly right (re: Haley) but not decisively proven (re: being one of the biggest losers overall). That makes the outcome ambiguous rather than clearly right or wrong.