Economic and market outcomes in 2024 were broadly consistent with a relatively smooth soft landing, not a “very bumpy” one with major setbacks.

1. U.S. economy:

• U.S. real GDP grew about 2.8% in 2024, with no recession, while employment stayed at record levels and unemployment only edged up from 3.7% in January to about 4.2% by November, still historically low. Real hourly wages were near record highs, indicating strong purchasing power. (en.wikipedia.org)
• This is exactly the type of outcome commonly described as a successful soft landing: inflation falling toward target without a sharp rise in unemployment or output contraction. (en.wikipedia.org)

2. Global economy:

• The IMF repeatedly characterized the global picture as an approach to or achievement of a soft landing: global growth around 3.1–3.2% in 2024, modestly below the 2000–2019 average but steady, with inflation declining. (imf.org)
• There was no global recession or systemic financial crisis; the narrative by major institutions through and after 2024 was that the world had largely avoided a hard landing.

3. Financial markets and volatility:

• The S&P 500 returned roughly 25% including dividends in 2024, its second consecutive year of >20% gains, and hit numerous all‑time highs. (dqydj.com)
• Global equities were also strong overall: MSCI World was up about 17% for 2024, with North America particularly strong. (panoramicfp.com)
• Measures of volatility contradict the idea of a very “bumpy” year. The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) averaged about 15.5 in 2024, which Bloomberg noted was heading for its lowest annual average since 2019. (bloomberg.com)
• Analysis of S&P 500 drawdowns shows maximum intra‑year decline only ~8.5%, quieter than most years. (dorseywright.nasdaq.com)
• A 2024 market recap reports full‑year realized S&P 500 volatility around 12.7%, with volatility mostly subdued outside a brief spike around the U.S. election—again, not unusually turbulent by historical standards. (gia.com)

4. Comparing to the prediction:

• Sacks predicted that, contrary to late‑2023 optimism, the soft‑landing path in 2024 would become “very bumpy” economically and politically, with significant market and economic volatility and setbacks (even if avoiding a technical recession).
• Actual data show: no recession, solid growth, easing inflation, very strong equity returns, and below‑average or typical volatility by multiple measures. Political tensions and an election‑related volatility spike occurred, but they did not translate into the broadly turbulent, setback‑heavy scenario he warned about.

Given that 2024 delivered a relatively smooth soft‑landing outcome with strong markets and limited drawdowns, the prediction that the soft landing would become “very bumpy” for the economy and markets is best classified as wrong.