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Last updated Nov 29, 2025
Episodes / E160: 2024 Predictions! Markets, tech, politics, and more
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Sacks @ 00:16:11Right
politicsconflictgovernment
In 2024, the 'collective West' (US and allies) will be a major political loser: Israel will fail to achieve its stated objective of destroying Hamas in Gaza and will face growing international condemnation bordering on pariah status; and there will be significant electoral upsets in Europe (notably in the European Parliament) and likely in the US, reflecting declining Western cohesion and strength.
I up leveled my answer a little bit here to have the collective West as the biggest political loser, and Ukraine is a big part of that... you look at what's happening in Israel and Gaza right now, and I don't think that Israel's invasion of Gaza is going well at all. And again... It does not look like they're going to be able to militarily achieve their objective of destroying Hamas... Israel is facing, I think, a huge amount of condemnation internationally. It is becoming a bit of a global pariah... And then you're going to have a whole bunch of elections this year, both in the US and in Europe. I think that there's going to be tremendous disruption... I think there's going to be some big shakeups in the European Parliament, and I wouldn't be surprised if there was similar shakeups in the US election as well.View on YouTube
Explanation

Key falsifiable parts of Sacks’s prediction largely materialized:

  1. Israel not achieving its objective of “destroying Hamas” in Gaza
    By late 2025, the IDF itself was still estimating that Hamas retained around 20,000 fighters and access to rockets and arms, despite massive Israeli operations and claims of killing many militants and dismantling infrastructure. This shows that Hamas was significantly degraded but far from “destroyed” as a military and political force. (nypost.com)

  2. Israel facing intense international condemnation / near-pariah status
    In 2024 the International Court of Justice found it “plausible” that Israel’s actions in Gaza could violate the Genocide Convention and imposed provisional measures on Israel to prevent acts of genocide and allow humanitarian aid. (en.wikipedia.org) The Court later ordered Israel to take urgent steps to prevent famine and to ensure large-scale aid deliveries, underscoring severe criticism of its conduct. (lemonde.fr)
    The UN Security Council adopted Resolution 2728 demanding an immediate Gaza ceasefire during Ramadan, with 14 votes in favor and only the U.S. abstaining—politically isolating Israel’s position. (en.wikipedia.org) Meanwhile, the UN General Assembly adopted a Gaza-related resolution (A/RES/79/81) with 157 votes in favor and only 8 against, again placing Israel and a small group of allies in a tiny minority. (de.wikipedia.org) These developments are strong evidence of escalating diplomatic condemnation consistent with Sacks’s “global pariah” language.

  3. Significant electoral disruption and “big shakeups” in Europe (especially the European Parliament)
    The 2024 European Parliament elections saw the pro‑EU centrist, liberal, social‑democratic and green parties lose seats, while anti‑EU/right‑wing populist parties made historic gains. The hard right reached 187 MEPs—about 26% of Parliament, the most in the institution’s history—and new or reconfigured right‑wing groups (Patriots for Europe, Europe of Sovereign Nations) emerged. (en.wikipedia.org)
    Beyond the EU Parliament, national and regional elections in Europe also produced major shocks: in Austria, the far‑right Freedom Party (FPÖ) won a national legislative election for the first time, taking the largest vote share and seats. (en.wikipedia.org) In Germany, the far‑right AfD became the largest party in Thuringia and nearly tied the CDU in Saxony, both unprecedented breakthroughs for a far‑right party in postwar German politics. (en.wikipedia.org) These outcomes match Sacks’s forecast of “tremendous disruption” and “big shakeups” in European elections.

  4. “Similar shakeups” in the US in 2024
    Sacks framed the U.S. piece more cautiously (“wouldn’t be surprised if…”), but the actual outcome was in line with the spirit of a major disruption: Donald Trump won the 2024 presidential election with 312 electoral votes and a popular‑vote plurality, returning to office after his 2020 defeat. (en.wikipedia.org) At the same time, Republicans gained control of the presidency and the Senate and held the House, shifting unified federal power from Democrats to Republicans. (en.wikipedia.org) That level of reversal in partisan control and the return of a previously defeated, twice‑impeached former president is widely regarded as a political shock rather than continuity.

  5. Overall thesis: the “collective West” as the big political loser
    The label “biggest political loser” is inherently interpretive, but the concrete elements Sacks tied to that thesis did occur:

  • A costly, ongoing war in Gaza in which Israel failed to eliminate Hamas and drew sustained legal and diplomatic censure at the UN and ICJ. (nypost.com)
  • A series of European elections featuring record gains for anti‑establishment and far‑right forces that challenge traditional pro‑EU and pro‑NATO elites. (en.wikipedia.org)
  • A US election outcome that returned a highly polarizing, anti‑establishment figure to the presidency and shifted federal power away from the incumbent Western leadership bloc. (en.wikipedia.org)

Because nearly all the specific, falsifiable components of his forecast came to pass—and they broadly support his narrative of Western political setbacks—the prediction is best classified as right, even though the overarching “biggest loser” framing remains partly a matter of interpretation rather than a strictly measurable fact.