The prediction was that starting in 2024 and over the next few years, many high‑priced vertical SaaS vendors would see significant per‑seat pricing compression that would materially hurt revenue growth and profitability.

Two issues make this impossible to score definitively as of December 2025:

1. Time horizon isn’t over. “Over the next few years” reasonably implies a 3–5 year window from 2024. We’re only ~2 years in, so the forecast period is still in progress.

2. Available data points mostly show price increases, not compression, and are not specifically about vertical SaaS per‑seat pricing.

   • Broad SaaS pricing studies report that a substantial share of vendors raised prices in 2024. A PricingSaaS/Q1‑2025 trends report (summarized by Ray Rike) notes that 21.6% of SaaS companies increased prices in 2024, with price hikes on select plans averaging 27%. (linkedin.com)
   • SaaStr’s 2025 analysis of SaaS pricing calls the current environment a “Great SaaS Price Surge”: they report that around 50% of software companies are preparing to raise prices and cut discounts, and that average SaaS spend per employee is up roughly 27% over two years. Salesforce, as an example, has used price increases as a major growth lever rather than cutting prices. (saastr.com)
   • Other benchmarking and commentary pieces on B2B SaaS emphasize that when seat growth slows, vendors often respond by raising per‑seat prices, not cutting them; average SaaS spend per employee jumped nearly 18% from 2022 to 2023, consistent with this pattern. (uplatz.com)
   • For vertical SaaS specifically, recent overviews highlight strong performance and premium pricing power. A 2024 vertical‑SaaS roundup notes that vertical players are generally outgrowing the broader SaaS market, with high retention and the ability to command premium prices in their niches, rather than citing widespread price compression. (webuildsaas.com)

There are early signs of pressure on traditional SaaS models from AI and competition:

• An AlixPartners study on mid‑market enterprise software finds slowing growth, declining net dollar retention, and competitive pressure from AI‑native and low‑cost entrants, which could translate into discounting or margin pressure over time. (businessinsider.com)
• Forward‑looking commentary specifically about vertical SaaS argues that AI and automation are likely to be deflationary for SaaS margins and will erode the ability to charge premium prices, but this is framed as a future impact rather than documented, broad-based price compression already observed in 2024–2025. (insights.fusion-42.com)

Net assessment:

• So far, market data shows rising SaaS prices and strong vertical‑SaaS pricing power, not “significant per‑seat pricing compression” across many vendors.
• However, the prediction explicitly spans multiple years beyond 2025, and some of the structural pressures it describes (AI‑driven competition, margin pressure) are only beginning to show up.

Because the forecast window is still open and current evidence does not yet cleanly confirm or falsify the multi‑year outcome, the fairest classification today is “inconclusive (too early)”, not definitively right or wrong.