Available performance data for calendar year 2024 show that the Magnificent Seven significantly outperformed the rest of the S&P 500 (the so‑called “S&P 493”), meaning a long S&P 493 / short Magnificent Seven spread would not have been profitable.

Dimensional Fund Advisors’ analysis "Mag 7 Gravity" reports that for 2024 (as of December 31, 2024):

• S&P 500 total return: 25.0%
• Magnificent Seven basket return: 48.3%
• Other 493 stocks in the index ("S&P 493"): 15.9% (ifa.com)

A separate summary of the same Dimensional data used in adviser commentary reiterates that in 2024 the Magnificent Seven surged about 48%, while the remaining 493 stocks returned about 16%. (axis.ausiex.com.au) Other market commentary similarly characterizes 2024 as another very strong year for the Magnificent Seven, with estimates of their group gain around 60%+, further confirming their clear outperformance of the broader index. (markets.financialcontent.com)

Because the Magnificent Seven substantially outgained the S&P 493 over the full year 2024, a trade that was long the S&P 493 and short the Magnificent Seven over that period would have lost money on a relative basis. This is the opposite of the predicted outcome, so the prediction is wrong.