Using IGV (iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF) as a broad public software/tech benchmark, calendar‑year 2024 performance was about +23–27%, and the Nasdaq‑100 was up roughly 22.6% in 2024, indicating strong gains for public tech/software stocks over that year. (companiesmarketcap.com) For late‑stage private tech, the Forge Private Market Index—tracking actively traded, venture‑backed late‑stage companies—returned only +6.7% in 2024, far below public tech/software indices and implying significant relative underperformance. (forgeglobal.com) Carta’s 2024 private‑markets review finds that Series E+ (very late‑stage) pre‑money valuations were down 18% year‑over‑year and highlights a broader ‘late‑stage lull’, with late‑stage valuations still well below 2021 highs. (carta.com) PitchBook‑based SaaS VC data also show median revenue multiples on software venture rounds falling from 11.3x in 2023 to 10.1x in 2024, i.e., further multiple compression for private software deals despite more capital deployed. (buttondown.com) Although a handful of AI giants (OpenAI, Anthropic, Databricks, xAI) saw large valuation mark‑ups, analysts emphasize these as concentrated outliers in an otherwise subdued late‑stage market. (reuters.com) Taken together, public software/tech indices clearly outperformed while late‑stage private tech/SaaS valuations experienced continued pressure and contraction relative to public markets in 2024, matching Chamath’s directional prediction.