Evidence from the 2024 election shows that no independent or third‑party effort became a “big winner” or materially challenged Democratic–Republican dominance.

• Final vote shares: In the November 5, 2024 presidential election, Donald Trump (R) won 49.8% of the popular vote and Kamala Harris (D) won 48.3%, with all 538 electoral votes going to the two major‑party tickets (312 for Trump, 226 for Harris).(en.wikipedia.org) Third‑party and independent candidates collectively received around 2% of the national vote, a slight uptick from 2020 but still marginal.
• Performance of leading third‑party/independent candidates: The strongest non‑major‑party campaigns each finished under 1% nationally: Jill Stein (Green) about 0.55%, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (independent/We the People) about 0.48–0.49%, and Libertarian Chase Oliver about 0.42%.(en.wikipedia.org) None won any electoral votes or a substantial state‑level share comparable to historic disruptors like Ross Perot or George Wallace.
• RFK Jr.’s trajectory: Kennedy did initially poll unusually well for a third‑party hopeful, with analyses noting that his early polling was the strongest for such a candidate since Perot. But by August 23, 2024 he suspended active campaigning and endorsed Trump, explicitly acknowledging he had no realistic path to victory; at that time public polling put him around 2%.(en.wikipedia.org) His final vote share under 1% confirms that his effort did not evolve into a major, system‑challenging force.
• Overall third‑party impact: Post‑election analyses and official tallies consistently characterize third‑party and independent performances as minor—third‑party totals remained below 5% nationally and did not alter the two‑party lock on the Electoral College.(en.wikipedia.org) The 2024 results look like a conventional two‑party race with only small third‑party leakage, not a year in which an outsider effort “challenged the traditional two‑party split.”

Because no independent or third‑party campaign became a major electoral winner or significantly undermined two‑party dominance in 2024, Friedberg’s prediction did not come true.