Evidence suggests the first half of Chamath’s call (a strong run‑up before the first cut) broadly fit what happened, but the key second half (significant sell‑off after that cut) did not.

• The Fed made its first rate cut of this cycle in September 2024, lowering the federal funds target for the first time since 2020. (en.wikipedia.org)
• U.S. equities did experience a strong advance into that period: the S&P 500 gained about 23% and the Nasdaq nearly 30% in 2024, widely characterized as a powerful bull run driven by AI‑linked mega‑caps and easing inflation. (statista.com) Monthly S&P 500 data show mostly positive returns through September 2024, consistent with a “melt‑up until the first cut.” (statmuse.com)
• However, there was no immediate “real selling” after the September cut. The S&P 500 was up in September, flat‑to‑slightly down in October, then surged 5.4% in November, ending 2024 near record highs. (statmuse.com) That is the opposite of a sharp post‑cut sell‑off.
• A more notable drawdown didn’t arrive until early 2025, when the S&P 500 dropped roughly 5–6% in both February and March and saw very large daily declines in early April. (officialdata.org) By then, the market had already pushed well above its level at the time of the first 2024 cut.

Because Chamath specifically tied a sharp sell‑off to the timing of the first Fed cut, and instead the market continued higher for months after that cut before meaningfully correcting, the overall prediction did not play out as stated, even though the pre‑cut strength was broadly accurate.