Available evidence indicates that Jason’s prediction has largely played out by late 2025.

• Google did integrate ads directly into AI answer experiences. In 2024 Google began testing and then rolling out ads inside “AI Overviews” (its Gemini-powered, AI-generated answers in Search), with clearly labeled sponsored units embedded in or alongside the AI responses, explicitly framed as a way to extend its core ad business into generative AI search. (reuters.com)

• Monetization of AI answers is performing about as well as classic search ads. On Alphabet’s Q4 2024 and subsequent earnings calls, Chief Business Officer Philipp Schindler said that AI Overviews are monetizing at “approximately the same rate” as regular search results, even with a limited baseline of ads within and below the AI response. This indicates that click behavior and targeting are integrating effectively into the AI format rather than cannibalizing it. (medianama.com)

• These AI answer experiences have scaled to massive usage and are driving more (and more commercial) queries. By early–mid 2025, Google reported AI Overviews usage in the billions of users and described AI Mode (a more conversational, Gemini-heavy search experience) as driving longer and more complex queries, with noted increases in commercial query volume—i.e., the kinds of searches that are most valuable for advertisers. Management has repeatedly said these AI features are expanding the universe of queries and creating more monetization opportunities. (blog.google)

• Search ad revenue growth has materially accelerated in the period when Gemini/AI Overviews rolled out. Before these generative AI features, Google Search & Other grew at about 5% year-over-year in Q2 2023. (dazeinfo.com) After AI Overviews and related AI features were introduced and then broadened, Search revenue growth jumped into the low‑ to mid‑teens: Google Search revenue grew 14% YoY in Q2 2024, and Search & Other ad revenues rose 13% in Q4 2024 to $54B for the quarter. (searchenginejournal.com) For full-year 2024, Google Search + Other reached about $198.1B in revenue, up 13% year-over-year, and management and analysts explicitly tie a significant part of this acceleration to AI-driven search experiences such as AI Overviews and AI Mode. (visualcapitalist.com)

• Executives characterize AI as a broad revenue and growth driver, not a drag. Sundar Pichai has stated that AI is “positively impacting every part of the business” and specifically calls out AI Overviews and AI Mode as contributors to higher engagement and monetization in Search, supporting the view that these AI answer experiences are now a major, lucrative part of Google’s advertising engine rather than an experimental side feature. (nasdaq.com)

Putting this together: Google has successfully embedded ads into Gemini-powered search answers, achieved monetization rates comparable to classic search results at enormous scale, and seen a clear step-up in Search ad revenue growth during the rollout period. That aligns well with Jason’s forecast that AI-driven answer experiences would integrate ad clicks/targeting effectively and become a highly lucrative driver of new ad revenue growth over the ensuing years.