At the time of the December 2023 podcast, the Federal Reserve’s target range for the federal funds rate was 5.25%–5.50%, and the 10‑year Treasury yield was around 4.23% on December 8, 2023.(focus-economics.com)(etfdb.com) Chamath predicted that within roughly two years, benchmark U.S. interest rates would be “around 2.5%,” implying a drop of about 160 basis points from then-current levels. In reality, after a series of cuts in late 2024, the Fed had only reduced the target range to 4.25%–4.50% and then further to about 3.75%–4.00% by late 2025, with the effective federal funds rate running near 3.88% in November 2025—well above 2.5%.(federalreserve.gov)(federalreserve.gov) Over the same period, the 10‑year Treasury yield has hovered around 4.0% in late November 2025 and has not approached 2.5% at any point, with its 2025 lows just below 4%.(ycharts.com)(gurufocus.com) Because neither the policy rate nor the 10‑year yield has come close to 2.5% at any time within this roughly two‑year window, the prediction that rates would be around 2.5% by then is wrong, even though the general direction of lower rates was correct.