The prediction was explicitly conditional: “If you see a quarter point rate cut in Q1…”. In reality, the Federal Reserve did not cut rates in Q1 2024. The federal funds target range remained at 5.25–5.50% after the January 31, 2024 and March 20, 2024 FOMC meetings (no 25 bps cut occurred in that quarter, as confirmed by the Fed’s published meeting decisions and historical rate data).

Because the stated condition (a 25 bps cut in Q1 2024) never happened, the claim about $1T of the $5.7T in money market funds flowing into risk assets was never actually tested. We therefore cannot say it was right or wrong; it’s a counterfactual scenario.

So the correct evaluation is that the prediction is conditional and untriggered, hence inconclusive rather than right or wrong.