Chamath’s claim was that after the mid‑2022 to mid‑2023 software/SaaS slowdown, software revenues would start to rebound from late 2023 onward.

Sector-wide data shows there was a software/SaaS spending slump in 2022–2023, sometimes described as a software spend recession, with slower growth and weaker net new ARR for many public SaaS names. A Q4 2024 review of an index of 100+ public SaaS companies notes that this software-spend downturn in 2022–2023 is now behind the industry and that SaaS spend across all company sizes increased about 9% in 2024, based on High Alpha’s 2024 SaaS Benchmarks Report. (practicalvc.com)

Jamin Ball’s State of SaaS analysis (widely used by SaaS investors) shows that quarterly net new ARR had been slowing or shrinking for several years but began to improve in the most recent quarters before 2024, and he explicitly interprets those recent quarters as evidence that growth is starting to rebound and that 2024 is likely to be a year of reacceleration. (saastr.com) ChartMogul’s 2024 data likewise reports that SaaS companies experienced record‑low growth rates in 2023 but were back to steady positive ARR growth around 23–24% by late 2023 and into the first half of 2024, with some customer and ARR-size segments showing clear acceleration from those lows. (chartmogul.com)

On the broader software/IT side, Gartner’s figures (summarized by Investopedia and TechRadar) show worldwide software spending rising strongly again: software outlays in 2024 are expected to be up roughly 12.6% from 2023 to nearly $1.1 trillion, with a further ~10.5% increase forecast for 2025—growth that clearly contrasts with the prior slowdown. (investopedia.com) Market-size estimates for SaaS itself show global SaaS revenue growing from about $273.5 billion in 2023 to roughly $317.5 billion in 2024 (mid‑teens percentage growth) with high‑teens CAGRs projected going forward. (reddit.com)

Finally, large public cloud and SaaS vendors—Salesforce, ServiceNow, SAP’s cloud segment, Google Cloud, AWS and Azure—have all been reporting double‑digit year‑over‑year revenue growth through 2023–2024, with some (especially Google Cloud and the hyperscalers) showing renewed acceleration tied to AI workloads, indicating that aggregate software/cloud revenues are again rising meaningfully rather than stagnating. (technologymagazine.com)

Taken together, these sources show that after a clear SaaS/software slowdown in 2022–2023, sector‑wide software and SaaS revenues returned to solid, positive growth from late 2023 into 2024, with net new ARR and customer spend improving versus the trough period. That matches the substance of Chamath’s prediction that software revenues were going to rebound.