The prediction hinged on a rate cut occurring in Q1 2024 and that cut beginning an easing cycle that would help President Biden’s 2024 reelection prospects.

1. No rate cut in Q1 2024:

   • At its January 2024 meeting, the FOMC maintained the federal funds target range at 5.25–5.50%. (econbrowser.com)
   • At the March 20, 2024 meeting (still Q1), the FOMC again left the target range unchanged at 5.25–5.50% and explicitly stated it did not yet expect it would be appropriate to reduce rates. (bankingjournal.aba.com)
   • There were no inter‑meeting cuts, so no rate cut occurred between January 1 and March 31, 2024.

2. Easing cycle started later, not in Q1:

   • The Fed’s first rate cut of this cycle came at the September 2024 FOMC meeting, when it lowered the target range by 50 bps to 4.75–5.00%, its first easing move in four years. (jpmorgan.com)
   • Subsequent projections and moves in late 2024 confirm that the easing cycle began in the fall of 2024, not Q1. (federalreserve.gov)

3. Biden’s reelection prospects did not materialize:

   • Joe Biden withdrew from the 2024 race on July 21, 2024; Kamala Harris became the Democratic nominee. (en.wikipedia.org)
   • Donald Trump defeated Harris in the November 5, 2024 presidential election; Biden was not even on the ballot, so there was no Biden reelection for any easing cycle to assist. (en.wikipedia.org)

Because (a) no Fed rate cut occurred in Q1 2024 and (b) the eventual easing cycle began much later and did not lead to a Biden reelection bid or victory, Sacks’s prediction is incorrect on both its timing and political implications.