Multiple subsequent reports show that the tender/secondary sale did go through at an $86 billion valuation, matching Chamath’s prediction.

• In October 2023, Bloomberg reported that OpenAI was in talks to let employees sell shares via a tender offer valuing the company at about $86 billion. (bloomberg.com)
• After Sam Altman’s brief ouster in November 2023 put the deal “in jeopardy,” The Information (via Reuters) and other outlets noted that the $86 billion Thrive Capital–led tender was at risk but still pending, not canceled. (theinformation.com)
• In February 2024, Bloomberg and others reported that OpenAI had completed a deal allowing employees to sell shares in a tender offer that valued the company at $86 billion, led by Thrive Capital. (bloomberg.com)
• The Boston Globe likewise reported that the deal "values the artificial intelligence startup at $86 billion" and confirmed it had been completed, noting it had previously been set for the prior year but was delayed by Altman’s ouster. (bostonglobe.com)

So the planned secondary share sale did occur and it did so at roughly the originally discussed $86 billion valuation, despite the temporary chaos. That aligns with Chamath’s prediction that “this valuation is going to hold” and “the secondary is going to happen.”